Quarterback Trey Lance scouting report, 2021 NFL Draft analysis

North Dakota State football history

For some perspective about the North Dakota State football program, it is important to understand their recent success. Since 2011, the team has only lost eight games and are currently on an improbable 37-game win streak heading into this season.

In 2019, The Bison (led by quarterback Lance) went undefeated and won their third FCS championship in a row. They have won 16 national championships and 36 conference championships since 1964. To say this team has an unprecedented track record of success is an understatement. They are one of the only FCS teams to ever be ranked in the AP National poll and are generally considered the gold standard at this level of football.

There are no comparisons in the NFL or FBS that can accurately give you an idea of how dominant this program has been. The Alabama Crimson Tide might come closest, but even then the comparison doesn’t do the Bison justice.

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The team has had sustained success over many years, through multiple head coaching regimes. Eight of their last nine FCS championships have been won under three separate head coaches. Every season the school fields an impressive, consistent winning roster in Fargo, North Dakota.

So why does the school supply so little talent to the NFL? Why does the team get so little attention from football media and NFL general managers? Since 2002, only 11 athletes who played for the Bison have been drafted into the NFL according to FootballDB.com. How does North Dakota’s unparalleled run of success differ from Alabama’s?

Part of it has to do with the level of competition. Many of the players recruited to FCS schools are typically athletes who weren’t offered meaningful scholarships to FBS schools. This isn’t universally the case for every player, of course. Some choose to stay closer to home, others prefer to play for a program they feel confident they will be starting in. There is a wide array of reasons why a high school player might choose an FCS school over an FBS school.

For these reasons, FCS football programs are generally considered weaker than their FBS counterparts. It is for this reason NFL general managers are so apprehensive about drafting a player from the FCS. It is easier to judge, say, a quarterback’s pro-ability in the FBS, since they are going against other FBS defenders. Since those defenders will likely be in the NFL one day too, a general manager can see (to some extent) how well this quarterback will fare against NFL defenses.

Seem arbitrary? That’s because it kind of is. In this situation, NFL general managers are deferring to NCAA coaches and recruiters, assuming they must have a better understanding of these athletes than they do. Not even taking into consideration the level of development these athletes may have had during their time in college.

Because of this, FCS athletes have to work even harder to stand out than players in the FBS. But how does a quarterback like Wentz go unranked during the 2011 recruiting class? Wentz was only offered one scholarship and that was to North Dakota, according to 247 Sports. Yet he was able to build a college resume impressive enough to be the second-overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.

It is because of these oversights from FBS recruiters that allow the Bison to field such an impressive team. Players spurned by national programs or offered only support-roles on an FBS team can play for championships in North Dakota. And with the last two Bison starting quarterbacks going on to be drafted by the NFL (Easton Stick was drafted in 2019), high school quarterbacks have an excellent chance of being noticed in the NFL if they play for the Bison.

Click below to see Lance’s background heading into college.