2021 NFL Draft: Key storylines, top quarterbacks to watch and more

Battle for QB1: Trevor Lawrence vs. Justin Fields

Which quarterback is selected first overall will likely be the top storyline of the 2021 NFL Draft. Five of the last six drafts have seen a quarterback selected as the first overall pick. Even if the first pick goes to a team that doesn’t need a passer, it is highly probable they trade that pick to a team that does. Such is the value of a franchise quarterback in the NFL today.

Most analysts have Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence penciled in as the number one quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft, but we mustn’t get too carried away with assuming anything. No one thought a year ago Joe Burrow would be the clear-cut number one quarterback in the 2020 Draft. It is important to see this thing from all angles.

Lawrence has earned the right to be considered the top quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft, for now at least. He astounded the college football world in 2018 with an incredible freshman season. Making all manner of difficult NFL-level throws combined with elite football mechanics during his first season, culminating in a National Championship for Clemson. And while his overall statistics did improve in 2019, his sophomore season can hardly be considered a perfect one.

Lawrence started the 2019 season throwing five touchdowns and five interceptions in the first three games, including a 60 percent completion rate. And while Clemson didn’t lose a single game during the regular season, Lawrence did have a poor outing in the College National Playoffs. In a loss to LSU that finished Clemson’s season, Lawrence threw zero touchdowns with a 48.6 completion percentage, according to Sports Reference.

Watching his film, it is clear to see that Lawrence can make it in the NFL once he is drafted. He can make tight-window throws, shows great timing in the pocket, and threw with great accuracy all during his first two seasons.

It isn’t fair to judge Lawrence’s skills in 2019 compared to his 2018 season, since Clemson’s only loss all year was to a Burrow-led LSU, a team with a historically stacked offense and defense. It only seems disappointing because of the tremendous success Lawrence had in 2018.

But the 2020 season will be Lawrence’s final test before the 2021 NFL Draft and he is likely to run into another team with another potentially legendary roster during this year’s College playoffs. A roster that is led by quarterback Justin Fields, who is at this moment Lawrence’s biggest competition for the number one quarterback spot in next year’s draft.

Fields will lead the Ohio State Buckeyes, a team that saw 10 of its players drafted in the 2020 NFL Draft. The team has been a recruiting powerhouse in the NCAA for years and is considered a factory of NFL talent. And while the team lost plenty of talent this year to the NFL, there are plenty of highly-recruited players in the wings, ready to step in.

Fields himself had a great year in 2019, throwing 41 touchdowns and rushing for 10 touchdowns, which was six more touchdowns than Lawrence had. Both players threw nearly identical numbers in completion percentage and passing yards in 2019. The tiniest deviations in play between the two will be closely scrutinized by football analysts this season.

The strength-of-schedule for each team will also need to be factored into these two players’ evaluations as well. While strength-of-schedule is a tricky statistic that changes week to week based on every team’s performances, the consensus in 2020 is Ohio State will have a much tougher schedule than Clemson. Fields will be required to play against a much tougher slate of opponents in the Big Ten, as opposed to Lawrence who will have the lackluster ACC to compete against.

Also, Clemson only lost seven players to the NFL in this year’s draft. It is also considered one of the best-recruiting programs in all of college football. Lawrence will have significantly more of his core players returning in 2020 than Fields, along with a well-regarded group of freshmen ready to step in. It will be interesting to see which quarterback outshines the other and becomes the undisputed top quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Or will the first quarterback drafted in 2021 come from another school? As mentioned earlier, very few analysts expected Burrow to have the season he had in 2019 this time last year. Which other quarterbacks are candidates to challenge Lawrence and Fields for the number one quarterback spot?  Click next to see which quarterbacks have the potential to step into that role in the 2020 season.