2021 NFL Draft: Could Trevor Lawrence be the next top pick to tumble?

Looking ahead to the 2021 NFL Draft, Trevor Lawrence is being touted as the top prospect of the class, but could be become old news and find himself falling past the first pick next April?

With the 2020 Draft wrapping up, the attention of scouts across the NFL are beginning to focus on the 2021 NFL Draft. However, it doesn’t take an NFL-level scout to identify that Trevor Lawrence is the top prospect heading into the college season, but could he fall in the draft like others before him?

In 2016, Deshaun Watson entered his final season at Clemson as the presumed No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. Despite throwing for career-highs in both yards at touchdowns that season, Watson fell outside the top 10 and saw his fall end thanks to a trade-up by the Houston Texans. Instead, one-year starter Mitchell Trubisky was the first quarterback off the board.

The next year it was thought that the first quarterback off the board would come down to Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen. Although both Darnold and Rosen went in the first 10 picks of the first round, it was Baker Mayfield that heard his name called first. This came even with Darnold posting a career-high in passing yards and Rosen posting his best numbers across the stat sheet.

This year was no different. Tua Tagovailoa entered the season as the top candidate for the No. 1 pick, but an injury and the emergence of Joe Burrow derailed those plans. Before his injury, Tua was once again showing improvement, registering a quarterback rating north of 200.

The narrative is being written and planned once again for the thought-to-be No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft to become old news. Since his freshman year, Trevor Lawrence has garnered the attention of the country as one of the premier players, but that doesn’t make him immune to the rise of other exciting players.

Like Watson, Lawrence will have to shake the knock against the ACC’s competition. His resume of playoff appearances will help that case, but should Clemson fall off, even in the slightest, those questions could come back around. Watson played in two National Championships, winning one, and those questions still came to light.

Another aspect that could cause Lawrence to fall is if the results are because of him or the team around him. People will begin to look even closer at Lawrence’s play to find anything that could be an issue, a magnifying glass that might not be used on newer prospects.

Watson had Heisman finalists results to back his play, but despite being a polarizing player, Lawrence only pulled in enough votes to be seventh a year ago while fellow sophomore Justin Fields took third in the voting and could also declare for the 2021 NFL Draft.

And the mention of Fields brings us to the final concern; who else will emerge? Every year there’s an unknown that takes center stage in college football. This year it was Joe Burrow, a few years ago, Mitchell Trubisky. You could call it a one-hit-wonder or in some cases a breakout season waiting to happen. Regardless, the new and exciting player that puts people in awe for the first time always seems to climb draft board over players who have been mainstays in the college game for multiple seasons.

Am I saying that Trevor Lawrence won’t be the first quarterback off the board in the 2021 NFL Draft? Not necessarily, but it is a very real possibility. The spotlight on his play has been burning for two years and all it could take is a new star emerging to shift the focus of the league. Like Watson and others, Lawrence seems to be one of the top players now, but that could easily, and quickly, change.