2020 NFL Draft: Overrated prospects who will make teams look like April Fools

I get the appeal of Justin Herbert, I really do. he has ideal size for an NFL quarterback, has a rocket for a right arm and is extremely mobile and athletic. Herbert also flashes fantastic accuracy to all fields, especially when he is given the opportunity to stay in the rhythm of the offense.

I also understand that Herbert is extremely unlikely to fall far in the 2020 NFL Draft. With the quarterback-needy Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers picking at No. 5 and No. 6 respectively, it seems unlikely that he falls any further than that sixth overall pick.

That being said, if I were making decisions for an NFL team, there is no way that I would be taking him that high. Herbert has all of the physical tools needed to be a star at the next level and he looks incredible when everything is quick and simple. However, when he is forced to improvise or make full-field progressions, Herbert struggles, and that can be a death sentence in the NFL.

I would not say that Herbert is a poor decision-maker, but he simply was not asked to make difficult decisions often in college. He made so many throws near the line of scrimmage, either set up as a screen or as a quick dump off. Typically, Herbert had one quick read in college and looked great when that primary receiver was available, but he struggled when he had to move through his progressions.

That primary option just will not be available as often at the next level. NFL defenses are great at taking away what you want to do. He must become better at reading the entire field and working through his progressions is he is going to have consistent success at the next level. I am not saying that he can’t do it, but he has yet to prove that he can.

Also, while Herbert does have good overall accuracy, he really struggles to put the proper touch on his passes. He always seems to be firing the ball in there with as much velocity as possible. Herbert has the big arm to make this work a majority of the time, but he has to be able to place touch passes sometimes. His inability to place the ball behind the linebackers but in front o the safeties hurt him in college and it is only going to get more difficult at the next level.

When playing in total structure, Herbert plays well. However, he seems to be a bit robotic at the quarterback position, showing an inability to improvise and make plays when the play breaks down. Herbert’s athleticism fits the modern NFL well, but today’s quarterbacks also need to be able to work on the fly and create plays for their team when the structure breaks down.

Justin Herbert will likely be an extremely early selection in the 2020 NFL Draft. That being said, he has high bust potential in that range. I would not mind him as a late first-round quarterback target, but I simply could not pass up an elite defender or pass-catcher early in the draft to take Herbert.