Is Tua Tagovailoa’s draft stock falling? In a recent 2020 NFL mock draft, he fell much further than we are used to seeing.
We all know that Joe Burrow is the likely QB1 and first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. However, with his medicals starting to clear up, it seemed like Tua Tagovailoa was not far behind him. Tua obviously struggled with injuries throughout his college career, but he is undoubtedly an extremely talented quarterback prospect who has big-time upside at the next level.
In my recent 2020 NFL mock draft for NFL Mocks, I had Tagovailoa going second overall to the Washington Redskins. That was a bit higher than we are used to seeing Tua go, but if the new staff in Washington is not a fan of Dwayne Haskins, Tua at No. 2 feels like a real possibility. If nothing else, he has felt like a lock to go in the top six for a while now. If the Miami Dolphins don’t take him at No. 5, the Los Angeles Chargers surely will at No. 6. Right?
Well, perhaps not. Trevor Sikkema of The Draft Network put out his own 2020 NFL mock draft (version 6.0) on Monday and Tua Tagovailoa does not show up early. He does not go No. 2 to the Washington Redskins. They take Chase Young, makes sense. The Detroit Lions at No. 3 and New York Giants at No. 4 pass him up without a thought and the Dolphins opt for Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert at five. I’m not the biggest Herbert fan, but taking him over Tua is not crazy.
The Chargers have to take him at six, right? Wrong. They opt for Mekhi Becton instead. The Carolina Panthers could go with a quarterback at No. 7, but they take Auburn defensive tackle. Alright, what is going on here?
Tua Tagovailoa continues to slide until the Indianapolis Colts snag him at No. 13 overall. The THIRTEENTH PICK?!? Listen, I get that some teams will be scared away by his durability. Injuries were a consistent issue for Tua in college. But this guy is a premier prospect who has immense upside at the most important position in the game. Allowing him to fall to No. 13 feels like malpractice.
That being said, when you read Sikkema’s explanation of the pick, you can see why this is a real possibility on draft day.
"“Alright, folks, it’s time to get real,” Sikkema wrote. “I have already introduced the thought that the league might be lower on Tagovailoa than many think. Now, I’m not saying that every team is lower on Tagovailoa. Perhaps there are plenty of teams that would take him in the top 10. If that were the case, it would appear as if the result was the status quo.”“But we were told by more than one authority that certain teams don’t view Tagovailoa as a sure thing. A big reason for that is his injury history, even with the good medical report he received.”"
Tagovailoa falling past the top six seems crazy, but this kind of stuff happens every year. We fall in love with guys who the NFL simply does not value as high. It is hard to watch Tua’s tape and not fall in love with him as a prospect. He is an incredibly smart quarterback who has good mobility and fantastic accuracy to all fields. He does a great job of taking what the defense gives him and shows the ability to consistently place the ball nearly exactly where it needs to be.
Tua Tagovailoa is an absolute stud on the field who has the potential to becomes one of the faces of the NFL. That being said, his injury history and overall durability concerns are very real and will make some teams pause. It is easy to say that you like a prospect when there is no risk involved. Each general manager who takes a guy like Tua early in the first round is putting his job on the line. With his many issues with injuries, I do not blame them for hesitating to do so.
When I first took a look at this 2020 NFL mock draft, it surprised me to see Tua Tagovailoa placed so low. However, the more I think about it, the more I think Sikkema could be on to something here. Tua is the ultimate boom or bust prospect and it is not always easy to take that kind of guy early. That kind of prospect can easily lead to people losing their jobs.
I am going to continue to look at Tagovailoa as a top-tier 2020 NFL Draft prospect. All it takes is one team picking early in the draft willing to take a risk on him for his high draft status to be a reality. However, I am considering a slide like this for Tua a more realistic possibility than ever before.