The 2020 NFL free agency period is going to be fascinating with how many big-name quarterbacks could be changing teams. We predict the madness.
The 2020 NFL free agency period and really just the entire 2020 NFL offseason at a whole could be one of the most fascinating we have seen in quite some time.
The last time we saw this many high-profile quarterbacks available in the same offseason was, well, pretty much never.
The likes of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Jameis Winston, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, and plenty more will almost certainly be on the move this offseason, but what will the ripple effect be?
How are NFL teams going to structure their rosters to compete with the Mahomeses of the NFL world?
It all starts with the quarterback position. As we saw with the San Francisco 49ers in the final game of the season, even having just a ‘solid’ quarterback is not always good enough. In today’s NFL, you have to have a difference-maker, or at least someone capable of getting hot like Nick Foles did down the stretch in 2017.
We may soon be overwhelmed by all of the QB movement around the NFL, so while this may not be how things actually work out, here are some predictions of the massive game of quarterback musical chairs about to take place.
We will start by assuming that Ryan Tannehill (Titans) and Dak Prescott (Cowboys) are franchise tagged…
The San Francisco 49ers were less than half of a quarter of football away from winning their sixth title as a franchise, but unfortunately, the offense couldn’t put it away.
San Francisco has maybe the best offensive coach in football in Kyle Shanahan, a young roster loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, the best tight end in football, and a lot of motivation to get over the top.
The 49ers also have a minimal ($4.2 million) dead cap hit on Jimmy Garoppolo if they cut or trade him this offseason compared to a $26.6 million cap hit if they move forward with him under center.
Garoppolo is under contract for the next three seasons, and the 49ers need to seriously weigh whether or not he’s the guy who is going to get them over the top in the next three years, especially considering the possible alternatives.
One of those alternatives is New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. It feels impossible that Brady would change teams at this stage in his career, which since 2000 has been entirely with New England. But Brady, a California native, may be due a change of scenery and even as he’s gotten older, he’s proven he can still make defenses look silly.
Brady struggled this past season in New England with no consistent weapons in the passing game and having players like George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and whoever else the 49ers could bring in as a result of this signing would seem to be incentive enough, but consider also that Brady is a California native who grew up rooting for the 49ers.
He has nothing left to prove in New England. His legacy is cemented there. He could go the sentimental route and try to finish out his career with the Pats, or he could go to the better, younger team.
There are no shortage of reasons that this kind of a move makes sense both for the 49ers and Brady.
The obvious fallout of the previous move is that Jimmy Garoppolo would be changing cities. If acquired via trade, Garoppolo would cost an acquiring team just $23.8 million against the salary cap in 2020 with very reasonable cap hits over the next three years.
Since he would be acquired via trade, Garoppolo would also come with really no strings attached in terms of dead money in case things didn’t work out.
Why the Colts?
Well, the Colts have one year left on Jacoby Brissett’s deal, and they might view a player like Garoppolo not only as an upgrade over the longer term, they could also see him as a better fit for Frank Reich’s offense.
Not that Brissett is a bad fit, but Brissett had seven games last season with no touchdown passes, and another pair of games with only one. If you’re the Colts, you can’t scoff at the option to upgrade this offseason, especially with basically unlimited cap space and really strong draft assets.
I could see the Colts sending the 49ers a second-round pick for Garoppolo, getting a starting QB on a buy-low deal and bringing in a player who could excel in Reich’s offense as an above average game manager.
So where does all of this leave the New England Patriots?
It would be surreal to live in a world where the Patriots don’t have Tom Brady on the roster. The last time that was the case, my love for football was really only blossoming (1999).
21 years later, the Patriots go for a pair of young quarterbacks with some ties both directly and indirectly. Once upon a time, the Pats traded Jacoby Brissett to the Indianapolis Colts and he established himself with the Colts as a solid starting option.
I think the Patriots could wait for Brissett to be released in this situation, but Brissett is not overly expensive, either.
Because of how much less the Colts would save by releasing Brissett, I’m sure in this scenario they would desperately seek a trade partner and the Patriots could swoop in to buy low here. Trading Brissett saves the Colts $15.875 million as opposed to just $8.875 million ($7 million roster bonus due March 22).
$15.875 million is not a bad price to pay for a one-year option as your starting quarterback, especially if the Patriots buy low on Josh Rosen as well.
Rosen spent the last year in Miami with the Dolphins, but was replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick in the starting lineup and hasn’t progressed at all like it seemed he could when he was coming out of UCLA.
Getting with Josh McDaniels in New England could do wonders for Rosen’s career, and he could possibly be ‘the guy’ for the future there.
Because of the roster bonus for Brissett and the lack of great tape out there for Rosen, I think the Patriots could get both of these guys for the price of two day three picks, either this year or next.
This would also keep them in good position to draft someone like Jake Fromm and go with a complete youth movement at the position.
There’s not really much of a surprise element here, as Rivers and the Bucs have been connected by just about everyone since Rivers relocated his family to Florida. The Chargers will not franchise tag him, and NFL free agency looms.
Rivers is going to want to start if he’s going to play, and to be perfectly honest, Tampa Bay is kind of a catch for these free agent quarterbacks.
Not many teams could have a QB vacancy with the likes of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and OJ Howard on the roster, as well as Bruce Arians calling plays. Not to mention, the Bucs play in a state where there is no income tax.
Rivers could easily replace Jameis Winston with the Bucs and the Bucs would then draft someone like Jacob Eason or Jordan Love to be his understudy for a year or so.
This makes too much sense not to happen at this point, although Rivers will certainly have more than one suitor in free agency.
Although Drew Brees could probably still play, I think he will retire this offseason and pass his mantle as the Saint’s quarterback along to Teddy Bridgewater, one of the more interesting players in NFL free agency.
There could be a massive domino effect here if Brees elects to play again, and I think if he comes back to play again, it will be with the Saints only.
Bridgewater did well in Brees’ place last year, but there was no question that Brees would assume his role upon returning to the lineup.
If Brees doesn’t come back to the Saints, it’s not out of the question to think Bridgewater could receive $25-28 million annually from New Orleans, if even on a short-term contract (2-3 years).
The Saints traded for Bridgewater in 2018 after he put some good things on tape with the Jets, then re-signed him away from his hometown Miami Dolphins last offseason. I have to think there’s some type of agreement going on with the Saints and Bridgewater that he’s the heir apparent to Brees, and the timing of all that could be now.
Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have yet to pick their own quarterback for the Raiders.
As the team transitions to Las Vegas, I’ve looked at a wide variety of scenarios involving Derek Carr getting replaced by anyone from Jalen Hurts to Tua Tagovailoa, and now Cam Newton.
The Panthers aren’t likely to get a great return for Newton, who has been battling injuries the past couple of years, but this is a 30-year old former MVP we’re talking about. I think Jon Gruden would see an opportunity here to keep up with Kansas City by adding one of the biggest difference makers in the NFL on offense over the last 10 years, and build his offense around him.
The Raiders already have an excellent offensive line and running game. Adding someone like Cam Newton would enhance that and the Raiders have two first-round picks to play with in terms of filling out the rest of this roster.
If this trade is made, one of those picks could be utilized on a top-tier wide receiver to pair with Newton and Josh Jacobs.
The Raiders have plenty of options, but entering year three of the Jon Gruden era (part II), it would not surprise me in the last to see the Raiders take a gamble like this, especially because they have to deal with Patrick Mahomes twice a year.
How do you combat that? You have to get someone at QB who can light up the scoreboard. Cam Newton can do that. 2020 NFL free agency will be fascinating this year in Vegas.
What’s the fallout of the previous move? Well, I didn’t want to spoil it on the previous slide, but as Matt Rhule and Joe Brady establish their identity and culture in Carolina, I can’t think of a better player to come in and set an example than Derek Carr.
Carr has a very attractive contract for starting quarterbacks right now. Although he didn’t continue the upward trajectory he was showing back in 2016, Carr is a serviceable QB who makes mostly good decisions with the ball.
He can certainly figure out ways to get the ball to Christian McCaffrey 80 or 90 times.
The Raiders would only eat $7.9 million in dead money by trading Carr, and his base salaries come in under $20 million in each of the next three seasons.
For the Panthers, there are no strings attached. Carr would have to earn every one of those dollars and they could move on at any time.
If the Panthers could acquire Carr and maybe a mid-round pick for Newton, that seems like a win-win trade for everyone involved.
The Panthers would continue their purge and the Raiders would get a guy who, at his best, could help them truly compete with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
This would also set the Panthers up to be flexible with quarterbacks in the 2020 NFL Draft. Maybe they would use the 7th overall pick on someone, or maybe they would wait for next year’s loaded class.
One of the other bigger 2020 NFL free agency dominoes to fall this offseason will be Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton. Dalton has been the team’s primary starter since he was a second-round pick out of TCU in 2011.
At this point, Dalton has fallen out of favor with the Bengals and was even benched at one point this year so the team could get a look at Ryan Finley. He did not take kindly to that.
The Bengals are now poised to use the top overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft on Joe Burrow, so Dalton will obviously be gone. I think teams will wait for him to be released with a base salary of $17.5 million this season and almost no dead money charged to the Bengals.
Dalton would be wise to take the Ryan Tannehill route and find a QB situation somewhere in the NFL that he could win the starting job and perhaps get himself tagged in 2021.
Jay Gruden, the new offensive coordinator in Jacksonville, was once Andy Dalton’s offensive coordinator in Cincinnati. He coached Dalton to a Pro Bowl in his rookie season and some of his better years as a pro from 2011-13 before he got his head coaching gig with the Redskins in 2014.
The two could reunite here in Jacksonville where Dalton could very well unseat Nick Foles as the starter.
The Chicago Bears have to do something about Mitchell Trubisky.
His 2018 season was perhaps fool’s gold as we saw a tremendous regression in his game in 2019. The Bears’ offense was 29th in scoring this past season, and Trubisky was at the center of their issues.
Despite the fact that he’s been somewhat mistake prone in his career, I think working in Chicago with Matt Nagy could be tremendous for 2020 NFL free agency enigma Jameis Winston, who would get a lot more looks in the short passing game than he did in Bruce Arians’ vertical offense.
Winston is a former top overall pick, but he’s going to have to sign a prove-it contract wherever he goes in 2020. I don’t think he’s going to get a deal with the Bucs, but the Bears are a very intriguing possible landing spot for him with a strong defense in place and some solid weapons in their arsenal.
This kind of move means the Bears would have to move on from Mitch Trubisky, who is entering his contract year. Maybe they could trade him to a team like the Kansas City Chiefs, who could help work with him to rehab his value.
The last player on our 2020 NFL free agency list here is former second overall pick Marcus Mariota of the Titans.
Mariota is going to have to look for a situation where he could rehab his value, similar to what Ryan Tannehill just did behind him and what we suggested Mitch Trubisky may have to do on the previous page.
Mariota was dreadful this past year for the Titans, and he’s had some injury-plagued years since he looked like one of the league’s budding stars just a couple of years ago.
There may not be a better place for Mariota to go than Denver, who just hired Pat Shurmur as their offensive coordinator and Mike Shula as their quarterbacks coach. Although the primary objective in hiring Shurmur and Shula was to develop Drew Lock, the Broncos will undoubtedly be an attractive landing spot for a player like Mariota, who would be moving closer to his home in Hawaii while getting the type of coaching he needs to possibly resurface in 2021 as a starting option/reclamation project for some team.
He’s still young, but he needs to correct his swing, so to speak.
The Rest
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have Tyrod Taylor under contract, so their veteran bridge is already in place. I think with the sixth pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Chargers will find their QB of the future.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals will use the top overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft on Joe Burrow, but they could also pursue a veteran to be his backup. Perhaps Joe Flacco could make a return to the AFC North, or maybe the Bengals will look to a veteran like Case Keenum if they aren’t confident Ryan Finley can be the number two.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins could certainly be in play for one of the mid-lower tier players as a free agent bridge option, but the smart money is on them just hanging onto Ryan Fitzpatrick to mentor whatever QB they bring in via the 2020 NFL Draft.
These options all represent one scenario among many different ones we could see over the course of the 2020 NFL free agency period. This is shaping up to be such a fascinating offseason and with so many moving parts, we could see a vastly different QB landscape in 2020 than we’ve grown accustomed to.