Top 10 Quarterbacks in the 2020 NFL Draft: No. 3 Justin Herbert, Oregon

Film Review

The common criticism of Herbert going into the 2020 NFL Draft is that he comes up short in “big games”. While Oregon won the PAC-12 Championship and the Rose Bowl to finish last season, in both games Herbert threw for less than 200 yards and only one passing touchdown.

You can see after watching a single play from Herbert that the guy is athletic. Listed as 6-foot-6, 237 pounds, Herbert is tall, athletic and looks to be the archetype of quarterback NFL scouts search for. But in 2019, Herbert ran for only 50 yards on 59 attempts according to Sports-Reference.com. His size should make him a much better runner, but while scrambling Herbert looked lost and indecisive during the regular season.

Just when you think he is a purely pocket passing quarterback, Herbert breaks out for three rushing touchdowns in the Rose Bowl. While I suspect this is counter-intuitive play calling by Cristobal in a Bowl game, watching Herbert run the ball 30 yards for a touchdown shows he can be elusive in the right circumstances.

Herbert manages himself in the pocket outstandingly, shouting defensive reads to the offensive line and making adjustments as the play clock winds down. He has mastered the art of silent counts, slapping his hands repeatedly in a bid to make the defensive line encroach.

His ball placement is well above average and his throws have excellent speed. On several passes in 2019, Herbert placed the ball right to the receiver’s facemask from a significant distance away. Besides solid accuracy from an intermediate distance, Herbert has good instincts about where to throw. He can place the ball where only the receiver can get it and minimize the space where defenders can interfere. Below is a great example of what I mean.

I would argue that when it comes to pure arm strength, Herbert may be the strongest thrower in this draft. He has the strength and overall athleticism to launch the ball to all parts of the field.

Unfortunately for Herbert, Oregon coaching had him throwing more horizontal passes than vertical and did not afford him the chance often to pass deep downfield.

At the 2020 Senior Bowl, Herbert shined on the field and in practices for NFL scouts, being named the MVP of the game. The Senior Bowl performance went a long way towards solidifying his first-round potential, with NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah even exclaiming during the broadcast that Herbert would “absolutely” be a top 15 selection in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Herbert had solid accuracy and at times teammates let him down with dropped passes, which helps to explain how the Ducks fell short in certain games this past season. According to PFF, Herbert finished the 2019 season with an adjusted completion percentage of 75.5 percent.

Meanwhile, Oregon also finished with the season with the 22nd highest drop rate in college football, with his receivers dropping 32 catchable passes in 2019. He also finished with a 90.9 grade from PFF when throwing from a clean pocket.

It makes you wonder what might have been if Herbert had been in a system that properly maximized his vertical passing talents. On a team coached by, let’s say, Lincoln Riley, how many touchdowns would Herbert have had in 2019? The two games Oregon lost in 2019 were by six points or less. If Oregon had won those games, wouldn’t they have had a solid chance of making the College Football Playoffs?

Unfortunately for Herbert, we’ll never know. But it makes you wonder what he could do with NFL-caliber receivers, in a system that allowed him to throw deep, downfield passes. Maybe in the lead up to the 2020 NFL Draft, scouts would be debating if Herbert deserves to be selected first overall.

Herbert is far from perfect and will need to improve some facets of his game in the NFL. His most glaring issue is his propensity to fumble. Herbert took 24 sacks in 2019, despite having an above-average offensive line.

Certain offensive statistics will be concerning for general managers as well in the 2020 NFL Draft. Herbert finished 44th in third-down conversion rates last season, converting just 41 percent of the time, according to NCAA.com. The Ducks were also the 96th ranked team in Red Zone trips by the NCAA.

While not all of this can be placed on Herbert’s shoulders, it is important to note that Herbert does have some flaws in his game. Flaws that NFL coaches will have to work on if he is to become a franchise quarterback.

In the Rose Bowl, Herbert went 14-for-20 for a measly 138 yards, averaging 6.9 yards per pass. Herbert did end up rushing for three touchdowns that game and considering they won the Rose Bowl, it was a great way for the hometown kid to finish his Oregon career.

But in his final game playing for Oregon, head coach Cristobal had Herbert throw the least amount of passes in a game all season. An ignominious finale for the local quarterback.