2020 NFL Draft first-round mock draft: Quarterback reshuffle

The big arm of the 2020 NFL draft comes in at the top. Justin Herbert has only begun to be considered for the top overall pick after Tagovailoa’s injury, but he has shown the talent all season. The tall, strong-arm Oregon quarterback has impressed with his arm talent and statistics this season against opponents such as USC and Washington.

Herbert does a fantastic job of identifying open spaces within the intermediate area of the field (10-30 yards). These throws are his bread and butter, dropping balls perfectly between linebackers and safeties with both touch and pace. Herbert also possesses the legs to extend plays as well as convert 3rd and medium situations when under duress.

Even though Herbert has shown he has the best arm of the draft class, there are still mechanical tweaks that could improve his downfield accuracy and ball velocity. These two tweaks stem from his footwork, elbow angle, and off-hand positioning.

Cincinnati has been stuck with Andy Dalton under center for far too long, always settling for mediocrity. Ryan Finley has been unable to impress in this horrendous situation, leaving the draft as the only true option. Cincinnati is in full rebuild-mode, but still has pieces such as A.J. Green and Joe Mixon to help Herbert acclimate. I would not want Herbert to start until at least halfway through his rookie year if the current starter is not performing well enough.

Justin Herbert’s scouting report can be found here.

Position – Number of Selections – Selection Percentage

EDGE – 7 – 21.88%

QB – 5 – 15.63%

WR, DT, LB, CB – 3 – 9.38%

G, S – 2 – 6.25%

HB, TE, OT, C – 1 – 3.13%

Offense – 14 – 43.75%

Defense – 18 – 56.25%

Quarterbacks will always be the centerpiece of NFL rosters, but edge rushers have become more and more important to NFL teams over the years, especially in the middle and late portions of the first round. Many prospects now need to be a hybrid player that can fit numerous roles in a system (especially on the defensive side of the ball).

This year’s draft has more premier defensive talent, with much more certainty than the offensive side of the ball. Some pass rushers such as Anfernee Jennings and Javon Kinlaw have fallen due to the immense competition between defensive players for their draft stock, especially within the front-seven.

Finally, wide receiver stock generally improved with some top-end talent recognized nationally, while running backs and tight ends move back to being offensive after-thoughts in the first round.