2020 NFL Draft: Justin Herbert goes No. 1 in first-round NFL mock draft

Many will suggest that Joe Burrow is the logical choice for the first pick. After all, Burrow is on a Heisman run, on a top-ranked team and expected to play in the College Playoffs for the whole country to watch.

Burrow is literally from Ohio: it’s a coming home story in the making, a local kid comes back, does right by the state he was born in and leads the Bengals to glory. On top of which, Burrow is also having the best season of his young career, logging 38 touchdowns and just 6 Interceptions.

While Burrow seems like the most likely number one overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft. But I would argue that Justin Herbert is the better choice here, and the most likely. The biggest decider in all this will be Zac Taylor, the first-year Cincinnati Bengals head coach.

Taylor said on Pro Football Talk when he was hired that he would be involved in how the roster was composed. In Cincinnati there is no General Manager, owner Mike Brown acts as the de facto general manager. It is unclear who makes the final say on draft picks. But I am going to proceed and assume Zac Taylor makes the final decision.

Looking at Zac Taylor and his history of being an offensive coach, I believe he will be looking to find his franchise quarterback of the future. Watching Justin Herbert’s 2018 and 2019 film, he showed flashes of another famous quarterback that Taylor happened to coach: LA Rams quarterback Jared Goff.

For starters, they are both asked to throw the ball a lot more than other quarterbacks. So far this year, Goff has thrown the ball 373 times, which is fifth most attempts in the NFL according to Pro Football Reference. Last year he threw for a whopping 667 times in what was his best year in the NFL. For Herbert, he has thrown in 320 times this year in 12 games, which is 3rd most in the Pac-12 according to Sports-Reference.com.

Burrow has similar numbers this year, but the numbers aren’t the entire story. Herbert has been making significant throws for 4 years now, with never less than 200 attempts since 2016, and amassing a grand total of attempts at 1,181 while Burrow has only 759 attempts, most of which came in the last 2 years, according to Sports-reference.com.

Like Goff, Herbert benefited greatly from using play-action. Last year, he used played action 122 times for 78 completions, 13 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions, according to PFF. PFF numbers also showed these are a consistent trend for Herbert, as he had 13 touchdowns from play action in 2016 and 8 in 2017, along with a 9.6 career YPA (yards per attempt) when using play action.

Play-action has been a big helper for the modern NFL offense, by moving defenders up and making space for receivers in the middle of the field. Just as play-action helped rise Jared Goff last year to Super Bowl production, I believe Herbert has the requisite experience using play-action to turn more than a few heads in the 2020 NFL draft.

The Cincinnati Bengals are far from a complete basket case of a franchise. They have exceptional receivers in AJ Green and Tyler Boyd. The team has a new coach and if there is anything we have learned from the Marvin Lewis era is that the owner is patient with a coach that has potential.

Burrow is a fine quarterback prospect. But Herbert is exceptional in using play-action, has produced exceptional numbers in four years in Oregon and has the big arm and downfield throws to make the next step in the NFL. Burrow might be having an exceptional year, but Herbert has been having an exceptional career.

For more about Justin Herbert, I highly suggest NFL Mocks own Sayre Bedinger and his most recent case for why Justin Herbert should be the first quarterback selected in the 2020 NFL draft.