2020 NFL Draft: Tua Tagovailoa still has to be a first-rounder

Tua Tagovailoa is one of the most talented athletes in the 2020 NFL Draft pool, and should still go in the first round despite his lengthy injury history.

Tua Tagovailoa is going to be one of the most polarizing players in the entire 2020 NFL Draft.

That is, if he declares for it.

The superstar junior quarterback, Heisman contender, and top overall pick favorite going into the 2019 season, Tagovailoa burst onto the scene as a true freshman with a jaw-dropping performance against the Georgia Bulldogs in the National Championship, trailing 13-0.

It was one of the most unforgettable second-half performances in recent memory, and Tagovailoa’s physical and mental toughness was fully on display as the Crimson Tide went on to win on a glorious game-winning touchdown pass from the freshman from Hawai’i.

Since then, as anyone would expect, Tagovailoa’s game has been micro-analyzed and his resumé has changed. The one-half sample that had everyone in the country talking about some team tanking for Tua in 2020 has changed considerably as Tua’s on-field performance has been outstanding, but his inability to stay fully healthy has been more than troubling.

Tua is not likely going to be the number one pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. It’s not impossible with his talent level, but his injury history was already concerning enough, and now he’s going to have to recover from a major hip injury that will keep him out for the foreseeable future.

With that said, according to Adam Schefter’s report at ESPN, the ‘foreseeable future’ will have Tua back throwing the football and resuming athletic activities in the Spring.

Wait, what?

If you listened to some people on Twitter right after Tagovailoa’s devastating injury, you would have thought this was a Bo Jackson career-ender.

That doesn’t appear to be the case.

While Tagovailoa may not be a certainty to be back to 100 percent by the Spring, this timeline indicates he will be able to throw the football and resume athletic activity sometime near, before, or around the 2020 NFL Draft.

Teams are going to want a full medical evaluation of Tagovailoa, and understandably so. How is this injury going to affect him moving forward? Are his ankle injuries something to worry about?

Throughout his time at Alabama, Tagovailoa has dealt with many injuries with varying degrees of severity to: his finger, knee, both ankles, quad, and now his significant hip injury.

That kind of injury history for a quarterback who is even more dangerous from the pocket than he is on the run is very concerning. One of Tagovailoa’s greatest traits as a player is his ability to extend plays and see the entire field, making throws not many other quarterbacks can make.

That has also proven to be one of his greatest weaknesses, as his ability to extend plays has caused him to take unnecessary hits and ultimately get severely hurt.

How does this all play into his 2020 NFL Draft evaluation?

I don’t think there’s any way Tagovailoa should escape the first round unless there is some significant complication in his rehab over the next three months.

Although his injury history is a concern, there’s no questioning Tagovailoa’s talent on the field, and although it may seem like a pipe dream or unrealistic at this point in time, what if the guy is able to come out from this fully healthy? We’ve seen him play and play extremely well even through some nagging ankle injuries, so the crazy thing is, he doesn’t even need to be fully healthy to be a difference maker at the quarterback position.

You don’t want to make a habit of sending him out there with an ankle injury or a quad injury by any means, but he’s proven he can play through them and play at a Heisman level. We saw that in 2018.

Again, you don’t want to use a first-round pick on a guy thinking you’re going to have to play him through injuries, but look at a team like the Miami Dolphins with three first-round picks. Why would the Dolphins not take Tagovailoa with one of those picks considering the success rate of a first-rounder is probably hovering at or below a coin flip?

If you take Tagovailoa, why not go the Washington Redskins 2012 route and take another QB in the middle rounds to protect your investment? Or if you’re the Dolphins, give Tua the time he needs and put Josh Rosen out there.

If the bad teams at the top of the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft pass on Tagovailoa, some playoff contender is going to take the risk on him in round one and reap the benefits.

It’s not normal to think this way, but Tua Tagovailoa is undoubtedly still worth the risk for teams at the top of the 2020 NFL Draft despite his lengthy injury history, and they will regret passing on him if they do.