2020 NFL Draft: Justin Herbert gaining steam as the QB1

Oregon Ducks quarterback Justin Herbert should be gaining steam as the QB1 in the 2020 NFL Draft despite Joe Burrow’s breakout season.

Very quietly, Justin Herbert and the Oregon Ducks have won nine straight games, and although Herbert doesn’t have a notch on his belt quite like Joe Burrow’s win against Alabama, he’s gaining some steam as the QB1 in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Although Burrow is certainly the flavor of the year for many, and he’s definitely earned his place in the early first-round discussion, a case can be made that Herbert has been the most consistent and consistently good prospect in the country over the past three or four years.

Herbert would have been the top-ranked QB in the 2019 NFL Draft had he declared for it, although he still may have been the second QB off the board behind Kyler Murray, who was the apple of Kliff Kingsbury’s eye from the very start.

Herbert entered the 2019 season as one of two players (Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa) favored to be the number one pick in the 2020 NFL Draft (assuming it would be a quarterback) and Burrow has burst onto the scene with a swan song for the ages at LSU, completing just under 79 percent of his passes with 38 touchdowns and only six interceptions, including a Heisman ‘moment’ in LSU’s big win against Alabama when he threw for 393 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.

Although Burrow has been stellar this season, it’s the first year of even above average play we’ve seen from him and the first year where he’s looked like a legitimate NFL prospect, whereas we are 10 games into a four-year career for Herbert, who has flashed his pro potential pretty much from day one.

Not only is Herbert contending to become the top overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft based on the high demand every year at his position, he’s putting himself in great position by having one fantastic game after another.

His touchdown rate is up from a season ago, and in fact, he’s nearly matched his 2018 season total of 29 touchdowns (28 so far in 2019) in 10 games compared to the 13 games he played last season.

His interception rate is down with only three picks in 220 pass attempts, and it’s not that Herbert is taking less risks with the ball, but he’s clearly seeing defenses better and making smart decisions with the ball while also making correct reads and showing off his arm talent to every level of the field.

The game has slowed down for Herbert, who has answered pretty much every question anyone had about him going into this season. He took the road less traveled for a QB prospect who would have been a guaranteed top 10 draft pick and ended up actually improving his stock.

The unfortunate injury to Tua Tagovailoa puts Herbert in an even more favorable position to be one of the first three or four players to hear his name called at the 2020 NFL Draft, and he looks like a potential franchise changer at the QB position.

Although Joe Burrow has been outstanding this season, the four-year sample of excellent play from Herbert is hard to ignore compared to just one season of outstanding play from Burrow, and while scheme fit will certainly play into the decision of a team like the Cincinnati Bengals, it’s clear that Herbert has the best combination of talent, experience, upside, and production in the 2020 NFL Draft, and that could ultimately lead to his being the first QB (and potentially first pick overall) off the board in April.