2020 NFL Draft sleepers who are obscured by stars on their own team

Colorado Buffaloes

First Round Prospect: Laviska Shenault Jr., WR (projected First Round, #15 PFF Mock NFL Draft)

Teammate to watch: Tony Brown, WR

The Colorado Buffaloes star wide receiver Laviska Shenault Jr. has had a prolific career while on the field. The former four-star recruit that had his choice of schools like LSU and Alabama, has made a strong case to be a first-round pick in the 2020 NFL draft.

He is an incredibly versatile prospect, having played as a tight end, wide receiver, slot receiver and even running back in high school and for Colorado. He plays like a running back, having broken 29 tackles after contact last season, second in the NCAA. He had 1,018 yards receiving from 87 receptions on 108 targets. He has become a focal point of Colorado’s Offense and is poised to be a first-round selection in the 2020 NFL Draft.

https://twitter.com/CUBuffsFootball/status/1189006438879977474?s=09

In Colorado though, there is room for more than one impressive receiver. Tony Brown has put up great numbers this year too and makes a compelling case to be considered in the 2020 NFL Draft. Purely on the basis of numbers, Tony Brown has been just almost as productive as Shenault, in some categories, even more so. Here is a side by side of their numbers this year

Laviska Shenault Jr.: 45 Receptions for 621 yards, 3 touchdowns, 13.8 Y/REC, 362 YAC, 27 First Downs, 2 drops, 67.2 Reception %

Tony Brown: 51 Receptions for 656 Yards, 5 touchdowns, 12.9 Y/REC, 222 YAC, 30 First Downs, 2 drops, 79.7 Reception %

https://twitter.com/CUBuffsFootball/status/1180618531320160256?s=09

The fact that their production is so similar begs the question of why Brown isn’t on more people’s radar. He went nine-for-nine against Arizona State, getting an absurd three touchdowns for a 100% reception rate. On the year, Brown only has two drops on 64 targets.

Against Arizona State this year, all three touchdowns were well-earned. On one of his touchdowns, Brown is tangled up with a defender and makes a contested catch.

This play stood out to me, as this TD is what NFL teams are looking for when it comes to a wide receiver, a guy who can catch under pressure with a defender pressuring or holding on to you.  This year, Brown has looked incredible.

The problem for Brown is that his success has mostly happened this year. In Texas Tech, where he played his first two college seasons, he had just one touchdown. He also had four drops and one fumble on 53 targets. The transfer to Colorado did him well, as he improved his reception percentage from slightly over 50% while at Texas Tech to a solid 66.7 his first year at Colorado, according to PFF. This year his reception percentage has increased once again to 79.7% through 11 games, an improvement of 13 percentage points.

Brown might end up being a lottery ticket to some teams in the NFL, who could either expand on his 2019 improvements or regress to the mean and look like his Texas Tech numbers indicate. In the end, context is everything and his draft hopes might come down to what happens at the combine or individual team workouts and the subsequent Q&A’s teams may have with him.

The biggest thing they will want to know is what changed between 2015 and 2019. New coaches? New diet? Better quarterback? Better scheme? What can cause a WR to go from having a 41.2% reception rate in 2015 to 80.4% four years later?

None of these questions I can answer. But I believe Brown has the potential to play in the NFL if he is given more time to develop and a proper support network to grow from. NFL teams are not exactly known for being patient with players developing, as roster size and the cap forces teams to cut players who might not contribute meaningfully that year (the exception, of course, being NFL quarterbacks).

In any case, Brown’s numbers suggest a potential wide receiver on the rise and a guy to keep an eye on in the 2020 NFL Draft.