Miami Dolphins still favorites to land the first overall pick in 2020 NFL Draft
The Miami Dolphins walked away with their first victory of the season on Sunday, but they are still the favorites to hold the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
The Miami Dolphins defeated the New York Jets for the first win of the season on Sunday afternoon. I have never seen a fanbase more upset with a victory. Dolphins fans took to social media on Sunday and were upset with the win because they felt like the tank for the top overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft was over. Cheer up Dolphins fans, you guys are still the odds-on favorites to land the top pick.
According to ESPN’s FPI formula, the Dolphins still have a 37.4 percent chance of holding the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. They are followed closely by the 0-8 Cincinnati Bengals who have an even 34 percent chance to earn the No. 1 pick. The New York Jets (11.3 percent), Washington Redskins (10.9 percent) and New York Giants (4.2 percent) round out the top five.
According to ESPN, “The FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations.”
It is a bit odd to see the Miami Dolphins as the favorites for the top pick, but the Bengals are the only team that has yet to win a game. The simulation believes that the Dolphins will have more trouble with their remaining schedule, which includes a Week 16 matchup against Cincinnati.
That Week 16 game between the two bottom feeders in the NFL will likely determine who ends up getting the first pick, making the Dolphins’ victory over the Jets pretty much irrelevant. The Dolphins are still in a great position to land their next franchise quarterback, whether that ends up being Tua Tagovailoa or Joe Burrow. Worst case, they will likely still be in position to get Ohio State edge rusher Chase Young, who is certainly not a bad fallback option.
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On top of that, the Dolphins still have two other first-round 2020 NFL draft picks that they can also use to add impact players. This team needs a lot of work, but the Miami Dolphins are in a better position to improve through the 2020 NFL Draft than any other team. Fans on the Miami Dolphins can relax. The tank is still on.