2019 NFL Draft: Remember, preseason numbers prove nothing

Quarterbacks

Those who criticized the Giants for picking Jones have eaten their words to this point of the NFL preseason. Jones has arguably been the best player on the field. On the other hand, Dwayne Haskins, who the Giants passed on for Jones, hasn’t looked great. In fact, he just lost the starting quarterback job to Case Keenum. Kyler Murray, who was the number one overall pick in the draft, has looked average at best.

To this point in the NFL preseason, Jones has by far been the best quarterback from the 2019 draft class. Does that mean he’s going to have the best season, or even career? Not at all.

Below you’ll find a list of every quarterback with a rating of 100.0 or higher to this point in the NFL preseason.

NFL Preseason quarterback ratings

1. Derek Carr, Raiders – 158.3
2. Kyle Sloter, Vikings – 146.9
3. Drew Brees, Saints – 144.4
4. Daniel Jones, Giants – 140.1
5. Jake Dolegala, Bengals – 138.9
6. Deshaun Watson, Texans – 136.9
7. Luke Falk, Jets – 135.9
8. Matt Barkley, Bills – 133.4
9. Chad Kanoff, Cardinals – 130.0
10. Kyle Lauletta, Giants – 128.2
11. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs – 125.5
12. Dak Prescott, Cowboys – 122.9
13. Josh McCown, Eagles – 122.2
14. Sam Darnold, Jets – 120.6
15. Ryan Tannehill, Titans – 119.7
16. Brian Hoyer, Patriots – 116.3
17. Jacoby Brissett, Colts – 113.5
18. Tim Boyle, Packers – 113.0
19. Eli Manning, Giants – 113.0
20. Devlin Hodges, Steelers – 112.5
21. Cardale Jones, Chargers – 110.1
22. Tom Savage, Lions – 109.7
23. Nate Sudfield, Eagles – 107.9
24. Mason Rudolph, Steelers – 106.6
25. Lamar Jackson, Ravens – 105.5
26. Jarrett Stidham, Patriots – 104.6
27. Taysom Hill, Saints – 103.6
28. Matthew Stafford, Lions – 102.3
29. Garrett Gilbert, Browns – 102.3
30. Nathan Peterman, Raiders – 101.3
31. Ryan Griffin, Buccaneers – 100.4

Why did I show you this list? Well, of all the full-time starters during the regular season last year, just seven quarterbacks posted a rating of 100.0 or higher. Those quarterbacks were Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, DeShaun Watson and Jared Goff. If you count Carson Wentz and Ryan Fitzpatrick as full-time starters, then it’s nine, but I excluded them since they technically weren’t full-time starters last season.

Drew Brees, DeShaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes have a rating of 100.0 or higher this NFL preseason. This makes sense since they were three of the top seven quarterbacks last season. Of the remaining 28 quarterbacks with a 100.0 or higher rating in preseason, how many do you think will actually come close to that mark during the regular season?

Well, seven of those quarterbacks (Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, Sam Darnold, Eli Manning, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford and now Jacoby Brissett) are the established starting quarterbacks for their team, giving them the best chance out of the group to do so.

That leaves 21 quarterbacks. Of those 21 quarterbacks, how many have a chance to actually see the field as the starting quarterback? You never really know due to injuries, but if everything goes right, I give one quarterback of the remaining 21 a legit chance. That’d be Daniel Jones, depending on how Eli Manning plays.

My point is, 31 quarterbacks have posted ratings that make them look like star quarterbacks in the NFL this preseason. With 10 of those guys actually being the starters, 21 quarterbacks with 100.0 or higher ratings have a legit chance to never see the field. Just because they’ve posted a rating of 100.0 or higher during the preseason, it doesn’t mean they’ll be a great quarterback during the regular season.

For example, if you’ve watched Nathan Peterman play during the regular season, you know he’s not a quarterback who’s going to post a 101.3 rating, like he has this preseason. In his regular season career, Peterman has a rating of 32.5 in eight games. 32.5! What’s his preseason rating? 100.5 (2017, 2018 and 2019 preseasons). Obviously, Peterman’s preseason ratings have proved nothing when it comes to regular season success. Peterman is just one example, but you get the point.

Going back to Jones and the Giants, am I saying Jones will be a terrible regular season quarterback like Peterman? No, but I’m not saying his preseason numbers prove he’s going to be good either.

I think it’s great Jones has outperformed just about everyone’s expectations during the NFL preseason, but I also think it’s too early to anoint him as one of the NFL’s next great quarterbacks. If he gets in a regular season game and performs well, then let’s start talking.