Detroit Lions mock draft and 2019 NFL Draft preview

The Detroit Lions have been mired in mediocrity for the longest time and will not be a choice by the Nevada folks to make the playoffs anytime soon.

The Detroit Lions have not won a playoff game in over 60 years and since 2000 have only made the playoffs three times, i.e., 2011, 2014 and 2016 and all ended in early exits. In 2016 they lost to Seattle in a 26-6 thriller and prior to that loss, lost three straight regular season games to playoff teams.

The need is for good players and heading into the 2019 NFL Draft the Lions have nine selections but most are on Day 3, which does not bode well for immediate ascension into the playoffs. The best way to accomplish acquiring more players is to trade back in the draft to acquire extra draft picks. With the Lions having the 8th selection in the first round there is a somewhat feasible method to do this.

The Lions did acquire some Free Agents during the free agency period but not enough to move the needle, so the draft is the last option that they have before the 2019 season begins.

So the plan would be to declare yourself open for business with all of the other NFL teams to see how attractive the No. 8 overall pick is to other teams:

The Houston Texans are the first to call as they have a real need for an OT and want to move up from 1 (23) to get one of the top three Tackles, fearing that none will fall to them at 23 and not wanting to take the next best T with the thinking that he is not worth it at 23. A trade with the Texans would be a difference of 640 points on the Value Chart.

Since the Texans have back to back 2nd Round choices at picks 54 and 55 with the Value Chart points totaling 710, leaving the them 70 points over, this deal could still be completed if the Lions toss in their 4th Round choice which has 72 Value Chart points, but the Texans balk at having to give up both 2nd Round choices and the deal falls apart.

The Washington Redskins would be an obvious choice to talk to with their starting QB, Alex Smith, down with a serious injury. With the QB position being the most important on all NFL teams, the Redskins would like to jump ahead of the Dolphins, Bengals and Broncos if either Dwayne Haskins or Drew Lock is available when the Lions pick during the draft, and there is a reasonable expectancy that one or both will, in fact, be available.

It turns out that one is available during the draft and the trade does go down whereby the Lions trade their No. 1 (8) to the Redskins for their No. 1 (15) and the Redskins 3 (76), 3 (96) and 5 (173).

The reasoning is that the difference between the 15th and 8th pick is 350 points on the NFL Value Chart, and those 3 extra picks total 347.8 points which is close enough to complete the deal. Washington would prefer to offer a future pick to save one of the above for this year but they are desperate to make the deal and they would still retain their No 2 (46), where they can select a WR which they also desperately need. They then would will still have 4 Day 3 picks left over.

During the draft the Lions receive a call from the Steelers, who seldom move up or down the draft board, but they see a player that they want at the Lions now No. 1 (15) spot. The Steelers, holding the 20th pick in the 1st Round, make the trade up for 1 (15) which is a difference of 200 points on the Value Chart. This results in the Lions also receiving the Steelers No. 3 (83) and 5 (163) picks, which add up to 200.8 points and is perfect for the trade.

The Steelers are able to trade up for a player that they really want because they still retain their 2nd Round pick, have higher picks in the 3rd and 5th Rounds, and have 3 picks in the 6th Round as well as their 7th Round pick. The extra picks that they are keeping are in the 3rd and 5th Rounds from Oakland in the Antonio Brown trade.

As legendary Coach Woody Hayes from Ohio State is reported to have said, “You don’t win with plays, you win with players”. Considering that the Lions only had one Pro Bowl player last year in CB Darius Slay and one possible snub in DT Damon Harrison, the shortage of good players is apparent.

This accumulation of selections does have one drawback and that is that many of our extra picks are in the 3rd Round, which analysts have shown only have a 30% success rate in becoming starters. But despite this stat we have confidence in our drafting and, because of our need to acquire more players, we draft as follows:

1 (20) D.K. METCALF, WR, Mississippi, 6033 228 – whose position, size and being a Lion will draw comparisons to Calvin Johnson; but Metcalf has had only limited production at Ole Miss due to his youthfulness (Redshirt Sophomore who declared early), and injuries. When he did play he exhibited freakish athletic talent and topped it off by running a 4.43 at the Combine. He would provide an explosive deep threat and be a WEAPON, which is something that the Lions offense doesn’t have. His presence would also make the other receivers such as Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola better and allow QB Matthew Stafford to display his arm talent.

2 (43) JUSTIN LAYNE, CB, MICHIGAN STATE,  6-2, 192 – with 33″ arms, he has the length and mirror ability as was exhibited by his swatting away 15 passes last year.  Has experience as a WR which would help him as a CB, he is a willing tackler and had good measurables at the Combine.  Fills a huge void and should be an instant starter.

Now having filled a major need on the offense and on defense, these remaining choices allow some flexibility in the direction that the Lions can go to further plug holes.

3 (76) TERRY MCLAURIN, WR, Ohio State, 6-0 205 – explosive receiver who was underutilized in the Buckeyes offense with only 35 receptions but for a 20.0 yard per catch average and 11 TDs. He aced the Combine with his 4.35 forty, aced the Senior Bowl practices and his Pro Day drills. This selection in addition to the D.K. Metcalf pick serves two purposes: (1) it will make Matthew Stafford very happy and (2) will put a lot of pressure on NFL teams with average CBs.

3 (83) JOSH OLIVER, TE, San Jose State, 6045 249 – with 4.63 speed – had 56 receptions in 2018 and was 1st Team All Conference. Why not take advantage of possibly the deepest TE class ever and provide another weapon for the offense. The Lions did sign TE Jesse James in Free Agency but Oliver can more easily split the seam and be a Flex option and would add another dimension to the offense. If he is not available, then Jace Sternberger, Dawson Knox, Kahale Warring and Caleb Wilson are all options. Wilson has 4.56 speed and caught 60 balls in 2018 without Josh Rosen. He could be what Eric Ebron (remember him, Lions fans), has become. At this point the Lions would have been transformed into an offensive juggernaut.

3 (88) NATE DAVIS, Guard, Charlotte, 6-3 316 – has impressed at the Senior Bowl and Combine, will either become a starter early on or eventually. If MICHAEL JORDAN, C/G  from Ohio State is available here, his versatility would be preferable.

3 (96) JUSTIN HOLLINS, DE/OLB, Oregon, 6-5 248 – he ran a 4.50 forty at the Combine, improved a lot from 2017 to 2018 and flashed his speed in chasing plays down. OR – MAXX CROSBY, 6-5 255, DE/OLB, Eastern Michigan – has been a Sack and Tackle For Loss producer in the MAC and ran a surprising 4.59 forty with a 1.57 ten year split at the Combine and reportedly looked really good on his Pro Day at position drills for both DE and OLB. Either would provide an option in sub packages for the Lions defense while developing into a full time starting position.

4 (111) MARQUIS BLAIR, DS, Utah, 6012 195 – was solid against the run and the pass with good measurables, could work into his way into a starting position.

5 (146) DARRIN HALL, RB, Pitt, 5111 217 – ran for 1,144 yards with a whopping 7.5 yards per carry and 10 TDs behind a very ordinary offensive line. Might have gone for 2,000 yards except that he split time with Qadree Ollison, who also ran for over 1,000 yards.  Hall turned in either a 4.42 or 4.52 forty at his Pro Day and is a big time Sleeper for this draft, as is Ollison.

5 (163) JORDAN BRAILFORD, DE/OLB, Oklahoma State, 6025 252 – recorded 9.0 Sacks with an additional 7 Tackles for Loss while acquiring Coaches 1st Team All Conference honors. Could be a situational pass rusher while learning the linebacker position.

5 (173) CORTEZ BROUGHTON, DT, Cincinnati, 6020 293 – had a big senior year as a penetrating DT for Sacks and TFL and could add a complementary piece to “Snacks” when in a 4 man front; OR, MICHAEL DOGBE, DT, Temple – also undersized at 6030 286 but would provide the same element Broughton in a 4 man front.  Dogbe could also be utilized at DE.

6 (184) JUSTIN SKULE, T, Vanderbilt, 6065 320 – 3 year starter at RT and LT who has shown signs of development and is worth a draft choice.6 (204) GEORGE ASAFO-ADJEI, Guard, Kentucky, 6047 315 – played RT at Kentucky and was a two time SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week in 2018. A Sleeper possibility as a Guard in the NFL.

7 (224) JORDAN WYATT, CB, SMU, 6-0 191 – had two terrific years in 2016 and 2017 before being slowed by injuries in 2018.  Coach has described him as a “special kid.”

7 (229) MANNY WILKINS, QB, Arizona State, 6021 200 – 3 year starter who completed over 60% of his passes over all three years and can use his legs to keep drives alive.