Chicago Bears: How Ryan Pace has so much Day 3 success

The Chicago Bears only have five picks in the 2019 NFL draft, and none of them come in the 1st or 2nd round. So this could be a down year.

At least it’s hard not to feel that way. Can GM Ryan Pace honestly be expected to land quality players with such a limited amount of picks and most of them coming on the third day between the 4th and 7th rounds? Yes, it seems. Bears fans don’t seem to lack confidence that everything will be fine regardless of having most of their picks in an area of the draft that is difficult to produce starters, let alone stars.

Most of that likely stems from the success the young GM has already had doing so. Pace has put together quite a list of productive talent from Day 3 including Adrian Amos, Jordan Howard, Eddie Jackson, Tarik Cohen, and Bilal Nichols. Amos just signed a lucrative contract in Green Bay. Howard, Jackson, and Cohen are all Pro Bowlers. Nichols looks like an eventual starter. All were chosen in the 4th or 5th rounds.

So what is it? Why has Pace had such success in this area of the draft? There are lots of variables that go into it, but upon close examination, there is a running trend between all the players mentioned above. They must fill three criteria in order to have a greater chance of success.

#1: Must be athletic

• Adrian Amos was a former CB before becoming a safety and time well both in the 40 and the shuttle drills at the combine.
• Jordan Howard ran a 4.58 in the 40 at 230 lbs and posted a solid shuttle drill in 4.34 seconds.
• Eddie Jackson was not only one of the rangiest safeties in his class, but he was also a great punt returner.
• Tarik Cohen posted a speedy 4.42 in the 40 and was clearly one of the most elusive backs in the draft on tape.
• Bilal Nichols ran a 4.95 in the 40 at 302 lbs (anything under 5.00 is excellent). He also had a shockingly good 4.44 in the shuttle drill. That’s better than Leonard Williams and Jurrell Casey who are Pro Bowlers.

#2: Must be productive

• Adrian Amos had 90 tackles and four interceptions in two years as a safety
• Jordan Howard amassed 3,942 yards from scrimmage and 27 TDs in three years.
• Eddie Jackson had seven interceptions and three defensive TDs over his final 23 games
• Tarik Cohen had 6,564 yards from scrimmage and 59 TDs in four years
• Bilal Nichols had five sacks in each of his final two seasons (as a defensive tackle)

#3: Must have a “yeah but” that coaches can fix

• Adrian Amos was viewed as too cautious by many
• Jordan Howard was not overly agile or a natural pass catcher
• Eddie Jackson was recovering from a broken leg
• Tarik Cohen was only 5’6, which is really short for any position
• Bilal Nichols was accused of never playing with proper leverage

By sticking to those criteria over the past four offseasons, Pace was rewarded with a series of quality pickups. There is also evidence as to why other late picks haven’t panned out. Safety Deon Bush had decent productivity at Miami but his athletic measurements were average both in terms of speed and agility. The same went for former guard Jordan Morgan, who had a terrible 5.36 in the 40 at the combine and a glacial 8.13 in the three-cone drill.

Players can be athletic and fail. They can be productive in college and fail. They’re going to fail if their biggest issues aren’t coachable. However, when all three of those things are checked off the list? History shows the prospect ends up being a success.