Chicago Bears: Predicting Mitch Trubisky’s stats for 2019

Everybody knows the score at this point. The future of the Chicago Bears rests on the right arm of quarterback Mitch Trubisky. It’s what they’ve built towards.

Never was there more proof than watching the most recent Super Bowl. The Los Angeles Rams devoted so many resources to making Jared Goff a success. They finally reached the big game and their former #1 pick wilted under the pressure. Now some are left to wonder if Trubisky can answer the best if and when he gets his opportunity in the near future.

The Bears look like a team that’s ready to give him that chance. They have the best defense in the league. A smart leader at head coach in Matt Nagy. Good weapons on offense and a solid offensive line. Everything is there to make a run. All Trubisky has to do is what he’s been doing to this point. That’s continue to get better.

What people want to know is if he improves, how much should they expect?

Averages say Mitch Trubisky will be more efficient in 2019

In order to get an answer to this question, it was important to see what happened with other prominent quarterbacks who have played in a system like this. To get it, the only place to go was Andy Reid, Nagy’s mentor. I evaluated every notable quarterback who started at least two full seasons back-to-back. To be clear, these seasons must encompass at least 13 games each.

Not only will Reid’s quarterbacks be included, but also that of his offensive disciples. In this case, Eagles head coach Doug Pederson. I compiled the numbers from both the first and second seasons and then laid out the averages for each year to see if there was any improvement to note. Here were the results.

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First full season average

• 60.35 completion percentage
• 3,486 yards
• 20 touchdowns
• 11 interceptions
• 82.04 passer rating

Second full season average

• 61.11 completion percentage
• 3,264 yards
• 25 touchdowns
• 8 interceptions
• 93.57 passer rating

The results are rather interesting. Almost across the board, each of the quarterbacks threw for fewer yards in their second seasons in the Reid-style offense. However, their efficiency went up significantly. They averaged a higher completion rate, more touchdown passes, and fewer interceptions. So how could this impact Trubisky?

If the averages stick close to him next season, the results would be as follows. He’d only throw for 3,001 yards, but he would complete 67.36% of his passes for 29 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. That would give him a passer rating of 114.28. Is there a single Bears fan out there who wouldn’t take that sort of season in a heartbeat?

Obviously the passing attempts and yards numbers will likely be higher next season, but it paints a clear enough picture. Trubisky should see significant improvement from where he was in 2018, at least from an efficiency perspective.