2019 NFL draft: Kyler Murray is the modern day Doug Flutie

Kyler Murray is aiming to enter the 2019 NFL draft because he believes he can go high. Is he correct or getting some bad advice?

Position: QB

School: Oklahoma

Year: Junior

Height: 5’10

Weight: 195 lbs

STRENGTHS:

• Arm strength isn’t elite but it’s not average either. He shows a number of instances where he can deliver a strike down the field, often without having to set his feet.
• Mobility isn’t just good, it’s great. Fast even among mobile quarterbacks. Not Michael Vick but not far off Lamar Jackson for his ability to gash defenses with his legs.
• Solid improvisational skill. When the play breaks down, he excels at buying time and finding the opening to make a play, either with his feet or to a receiver.
• Accuracy is a plus. Normally puts the ball where he’s aiming it, both from the pocket and on the run. Able to lead his targets to allow for yards after the catch.

This play exemplifies so much of what Murray does best. His ability to process what’s happening quickly, to improvise by using his mobility to scramble away from danger and then the solid arm strength and accuracy to hit his target in stride for a touchdown despite fairly good coverage.

• Natural throwing motion. Baseball background allows him to have the ability to alter how he throws the ball depending on the situation.
• Handles pressure situations quite well. Never phased by hostile crowds or big deficits. Continue battling from one play to the next.
• Smart with his decision-making most of the time. Gets out of bounds when he’s facing a potential hit and will throw it away if he’s certain nothing is there.
• The processor is quick, which is key for a QB. This often shows up on near-disasters such as bad snaps or fumbles. Shows he can still recover to get a positive play out of it.

WEAKNESSES:

• Like it or not, his size is going to be a concern his entire career. Not just with the increased likelihood of tipped passes but also the increased number of hits he’ll take.
• Benefitted from a highly advantageous scheme where he was often well-protected and didn’t have to throw into tight windows very often.
• Can get a bit reckless with the football whenever he’s under pressure, both with throwing into crowded coverage and fumbling the ball.
• Can sometimes lack patience. This shows up when defenses deploy 7 or 8-man coverages. He looks uncomfortable sitting back in the pocket and often unloads a dangerous throw.
• It’s important to question how big his commitment to football is. If he struggles early will he decide to just bolt for baseball? Such things matter.
• Has a tendency to drop his eyes when pressures set in around the pocket. Starts looking for an opening to run rather than search for the open receiver.

Pro Comparison:  Doug Flutie

Flutie came around at a time when the NFL was not ready to accept the idea of shorter quarterback despite all the amazing things he did at Boston College. Yeah, he was short, but his mobility, arm, and relentless competitive spirit carried him to great success anyway. He led two different teams to the playoffs in his career, went to a Pro Bowl, and won multiple Grey Cups in the CFL. Murray has many of the same qualities.

Projection:  Late 1st round

Given the much more accommodating offensive schemes of today and the fact that the 2019 draft class is somewhat weak at quarterback plays to Murray’s advantage. He’ll likely go somewhere in the 1st round but nobody in the top 20 will likely have the courage to pull the trigger. Not until late will some team, either looking for a future heir to an established veteran or trading up from the 2nd round will turn in the card.