Chicago Bears: Which position is most likely to score a 3rd round hit?

Chicago Bears GM Ryan Pace knows that mistakes are something he can’t afford this 2019 offseason. The margin for error is a lot narrower.

Not only will the spending money in free agency be a lot less than usual, but the Bears will also have no 1st or 2nd round picks in the draft. The highest they have is a late 3rd rounder, and that area of the draft hasn’t been kind to the team for over a decade. Pace knows that he can’t afford for that trend to continue. Not if he wants to get at least some quality talent in the draft.

Perhaps the best way to approach it is by determining which positions tend to yield the most credible talent in that area of the draft. To answer this I dug into NFL history going back to the year 2000, trying to find if any area on offense or defense might be the best place to target. The results painted a fairly conclusive picture about where they could focus.

Chicago Bears may want to focus on offense with their first pick

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Every draft is different but history does tend to offer at least a barometer on which position groups tend to yield more game-changing talents early rather than later. The 3rd round is particularly interesting. Going over every single pick made in that round dating back to 2000, I discerned which positions had the greatest success rate. In this case how many Pro Bowlers emerged per total number of picks. Here’s how the list fell.

RB – 8 (out of 50) = 16%
QB – 3 (out of 25) = 12%
TE – 5 (out of 42) = 11.9%
OL – 11 (out of 103) = 10.67%
WR – 9 (out of 89) = 10.11%
DL – 9 (out of 119) = 7.5%
LB – 4 (out of 92) = 4.3%
DB – 5 (out of 136) = 3.6%

One thing is excruciatingly clear by this list above all else. The 3rd round has been dominated by offensive talent for the past 18 years. That trend holds true in Bears history too. Of the nine Pro Bowlers they’ve drafted in the 3rd round, six of them were primarily offensive players. Now as to the king of the list? Here’s the last bit of information worth noting.

The last three 3rd round picks to reach the Pro Bowl were all running backs in Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, and James Conner. Suffice to say if the Bears aren’t high on Jordan Howard as many continue to think, that pick might be their best opportunity to find a genuine stud who fits what they want to do.

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