Chicago Bears: Projecting when Mitch Trubisky will get good

The Chicago Bears are about to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Like it or not, that doesn’t happen without their young QB Mitch Trubisky.

There’s no doubt that most of the heavy lifting has been handled by that great Bears defense, but there were a number of games this season where Trubisky had to pick up the slack for them and did just that. What has fans going so crazy is his inconsistency. Every time he has a truly great performance, he tends to follow it with a down period of struggles.

This has led to questions of which Mitch is the real Mitch? Will he ever get over the inconsistency issues? The coaching staff and teammates don’t seem perturbed by the matter. They know how hard Trubisky works and how seriously he takes his job. It’s less a matter of if but merely when he gets things figured out. That isn’t good enough for some people.

They want an answer right now. When, if ever, will he finally make that desired leap? While every quarterback is different in their development, there may be a way to at least get a timeline established for when it’s likely to come.

Historical timeline says Chicago Bears must stay patient with Trubisky

Matt Nagy has reiterated on multiple occasions that his offense is steeped in the West Coast style that originated with the great Bill Walsh back in the 1970s and ’80s. He’s of course sprinkled elements of his own into the scheme, but the foundation is still there. It’s creative, complex, and complicated. Quarterbacks rarely learn how to play it at a high level right away. The question at hand is how long does it typically take to really get good at it?

Perhaps the best way to answer that is by evaluating the two men who helped bring the system to the forefront of the NFL: Joe Montana and Brett Favre. One used it to dominate the 1980s and the other the 1990s. In order to get a proper gauge on their progress in it, I decided to break down their first few seasons into blocks. Each block would represent 4-5 starts and what their passer rating was during that stretch.

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Then it would be a matter of identifying when the serious jump in productivity and efficiency comes and how long it took. The results were interesting.

Brett Favre passer ratings by section

Starts 1-4: 89.93
Starts 5-8: 81.64
Starts 9-13: 85.61
Starts 14-17: 69.54
Starts 18-21: 72.48
Starts 22-25: 77.62
Starts 26-29: 67.58
Starts 30-33: 88.17
Starts 34-37: 65.14
Starts 38-41: 103.67
Starts 42-45: 100.24

Joe Montana passer ratings by section

Starts 1-4: 75.3
Starts 5-8: 88.27
Starts 9-12: 97.31
Starts 13-16: 95.02
Starts 17-20: 67.55
Starts 21-24: 97.73
Starts 25-28: 94.9
Starts 29-33: 82.1
Starts 34-37: 111.27
Starts 38-41: 96.46

Obviously, the proficiency of the two quarterbacks is different. Montana was more efficient early in his career but he and Favre did share something in common. The consistency was up and down for a significant period of time. Based on the numbers, the serious jump came around the 38th start. That was the block period where both delivered their first stretch with a passer rating in excess of 100.

This offers a general timeline for when a talented quarterback reaches the point of mastery with this system. For those wondering, 38 games represent just over two and one third seasons in the NFL. Trubisky just completed his 11th start in such a system. This means that there are still 27 games to go before he really makes that big jump towards A-list status.

This may not satisfy a lot of people, but one must remember it’s not like he’ll have nothing but bad games until then. He’s already proven he’ll have his really good moments from time to time. That should continue. The key is him getting to where he can have those moments almost every week. Like it or not, it will require time and patience.

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