Breaking down the NFC Wild Card race

CHARLOTTE, NC - NOVEMBER 25: Russell Wilson #3 of the Seattle Seahawks reacts against the Carolina Panthers in the third quarter during their game at Bank of America Stadium on November 25, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
CHARLOTTE, NC - NOVEMBER 25: Russell Wilson #3 of the Seattle Seahawks reacts against the Carolina Panthers in the third quarter during their game at Bank of America Stadium on November 25, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /
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NFC Wild Card Race
NEW ORLEANS, LA – NOVEMBER 04: Brandin Cooks #12 of the Los Angeles Rams (L) congratulates quarterback Drew Brees #9 of the New Orleans Saints after the game at Mercedes-Benz Superdome on November 4, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Saints won the game 45-35. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

Locks to be in

  • New Orleans Saints (10-1)
  • Los Angeles Rams (10-1)
  • Chicago Bears (8-3)

Neither the Saints or Rams have actually clinched their divisions yet, but there’s a 99% chance they’ll do so very soon. Both of the second place teams in their divisions are 6-5 (Panthers and Seahawks). With five games left to play for both teams, should we expect the current top two seeds to drop at least four games? No.

It’s even less likely for the Saints and Rams to drop four out of five while the Seahawks and Panthers win out. Even then, Seattle lost to the Rams twice, meaning the Rams will still be on top. The Saints have yet to play the Panthers, but they play them twice before the end of the season. I doubt Carolina beats them twice, if at all. With that in mind, these two teams are locks to make the playoffs.

The Chicago Bears are a lock in my mind, but not as much of a lock as the Saints and Rams. Their division competition is the Minnesota Vikings, who are 6-4-1. With the Vikings still having to play the Patriots, Seahawks and Bears again, I don’t see them winning out and taking over the division lead in the NFC North.

Chicago still has some tough games left on their schedule against the Rams, Packers and Vikings, but they’ve proven they can win those tough games. I predict the Bears finish with a record of 11-5 at worst. With the Vikings likely to lose at least one more game, that gives the Bears the NFC North crown and makes them a lock for the playoffs.