2019 NFL Draft: Missouri QB Drew Lock looks like the next Jay Culter

Drew Lock is going to be one of the more fascinating names to watch in the 2019 NFL draft. His scouting report reveals as much.

Position: QB

School: Missouri

Year: Senior

Height: 6’4

Weight: 225 lbs

STRENGTHS:

• Arm strength will be a key selling point for him. While not quite elite like a Brett Favre, the ball comes off his hand with seemingly effortless velocity. He will not limit an NFL playbook.
• Shows a knack for throwing the deep outs with ease. His accuracy can be impressive when his fundamentals are right and that’s at all levels.
• Able to throw at a variety of different arm angles from over the top to sidearm without losing too much zip. This allows him to make plays from awkward positions.

Most quarterbacks simply don’t have the raw talent to make a throw like this. Lock steps up away from the pressure and keeps his eyes down the field. With an effortless flick of his wrist, he fires the ball 40 yards down the field on a rope to his receiver over two nearby defenders and in-stride for a touchdown. That’s what they categorize as a “special” throw.

• Not overly phased by the blitz. Showed a number of times that he can get the ball out to a hot receiver even when a defender gets a clean shot at him.
• Short memory. Whenever he makes a mistake he doesn’t show any signs of letting it eat at him on the next series. Able to take it one play at a time. Never loses his aggressiveness.
• Not a pure scrambler but he’s quite mobile for a big quarterback. Has taken off for big gains and can break tackles to get those extra yards.
• Plenty tough. His big body allows him to handle the physicality of the game and he doesn’t seem overly phased whenever he takes a hit.

WEAKNESSES:

• His mechanics as a pocket passer are going to be heavily scrutinized. The footwork is especially sloppy as he doesn’t always keep the best posture when throwing, leading to misfired throws.
• Doesn’t do the best job of going through progressions. Tends to stare down his receivers, allowing defenses to close on the spot of the throw to create smaller windows.
• Has a clear gunslinger mentality. Like many with a strong arm he feels he can fit the ball almost anywhere and this leads to some rash decisions and inevitable turnovers.

Lock doesn’t have the mentality of someone who is willing to live for the next play or next series. Even though the screen is clearly diagnosed by the defense, he makes the poor decision to throw it anyway, leading to a catastrophic pick-six touchdown. Considering his team lost 37-35, that mistake ended up costing his team a victory, which can’t happen.

• Doesn’t have a ton of pocket poise. Tends to drift away whenever he feels pressure from one direction and fires a pass off his back foot instead of stepping into it.
• He can have a bad habit of putting up throws that get his receivers in trouble, leading to some pretty vicious hits. Needs to better protect them with ball placement.
• Has a bad tendency of falling apart in big games. His production against non-SEC opponents compared to SEC opponents is day and night, which isn’t the best sign.

Pro Comparison:  Jay Cutler

Good size? Athletic? Powerful arm? Shoddy mechanics? Tough but poor decision-maker? All of the traits match up perfectly with the former Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, and Miami Dolphins starter. Cutler wasn’t perfect but he had a way about him that was hard to ignore. He just had that knack for making some ridiculous improvisational plays that made people go “wow.” At the same time, he never figured out how to play the game efficiently as a mechanical passer.

Projection:  1st Round

Conventional wisdom says given the raw nature of his game he should be a 2nd round choice, but let’s be real. That arm talent and his size are going to get him drafted somewhere in the top 32. If it could happen for Josh Allen, it will for Lock. He’s way too physically gifted for a team to pass up on a chance of getting him. It will be a matter of whether he can elevate his standing in the predraft process like Allen did.