Chicago Bears: Where Is Ryan Pace At His Best In the Draft?
By Erik Lambert
Chicago Bears GM Ryan Pace knows he has to hit it big in the 2018 NFL draft. His team feels like it’s on the cusp of finally turning the corner.
Free agency yielded, on paper, maximum results. Allen Robinson arrives to instantly become the go-to receiver they didn’t have last year. Taylor Gabriel and Trey Burton also add versatility and speed to their respective positions as well. Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara both return to maintain stability in the secondary. Most of the big objectives were met.
Still, there is work left to do, holes left to plug. Pace needs to ensure he finds some good players in the draft. Often the best way to ensure this happens is when a GM doesn’t get cute. He attacks certain positions he knows best in order to maximize quality. So, of course, this leads to the next part. Which areas does Pace tend to excel at?
To help answer this question, we’ll enlist the services of Pro-Football-Reference to examine every pick by the position that Pace has made to this point. They use a tool known as the Weighted Career Approximate Value. Its creator explained it as such.
"“Now let me explain exactly what the list is. Remember that AV puts a number of every player-season. My opinion is that most people mentally rank players by counting all the players’ seasons, but weighing their best seasons more. In order to mimic that, I’ve defined each player’s approximate career “value” to be:100% of his best season, plus 95% of his 2nd-best season, plus 90% of his 3rd-best season, plus…”"
These numbers are placed in an algorithm and a value is determined. The more productive a player was in a given year, the higher the value of that season goes. Using this method as a tool, which position has Pace done his best work at thus far?
RB
- Jeremy Lanford (8)
- Jordan Howard (16)
- Tarik Cohen (6)
Average: 10
WR
- Kevin White (1)
- Daniel Braverman (0)
Average: .5
TE
- Adam Shaheen (1)
Average: 1
OL
- Hroniss Grasu (6)
- Tayo Fabuluje (0)
- Cody Whitehair (12)
- Jordan Morgan (0)
Average: 4.5
DL
- Eddie Goldman (16)
- Jonathan Bullard (5)
Average: 10.5
LB
- Leonard Floyd (12)
- Nick Kwiatkoski (8)
Average: 10
CB
- Deiondre Hall (1)
Average: 1
S
- Adrian Amos (14)
- Deon Bush (3)
- Deiondre Houston-Carson (1)
- Eddie Jackson (7)
Average: 6.25
The results are fairly conclusive. Pace has had his best moments as a GM whenever he’s plucking players at defensive line, running back or linebacker in the draft. To date, he’s produced three starters including one Pro Bowler and four productive backups in three years between those positions. Not bad work. Conversely, he’s missed horribly at cornerback and wide receiver while showing a checkered run at safety. All things considered, this might shed some light on where the Bears may focus early in the 2018 draft.
There are strong candidates expected to be available at #8 overall for each of those three positions. Saquon Barkley of Penn State is the running back. Roquan Smith, Tremaine Edmunds, and Harold Landry make up the linebackers. Last but not least there are Derwin James and Minkah Fitzpatrick offering value at safety. That’s a lot of playmaking talent that could be of huge benefit to the Bears depending on how they approach it.
Next: Chicago Bears 2018 Mock Draft: Lowering the Iron Curtain
Either way, the good news is whomever they do take this chart offers reinforcement that the player should end up being of high quality.