Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots: Super Bowl Prediction

The Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots matchup for Super Bowl LII at least features the two best teams in the league, if not the most interesting backdrop.

Part of this is likely the loss of quarterback Carson Wentz earlier in the year. These big games aren’t quite as attractive to football audiences when the quarterback scales appear lopsided. That’s nothing against Nick Foles. It’s just he’s not on the same level of respect or notoriety as Wentz or Tom Brady. Thus the game has gotten some of the worst coverage seen in years. People just aren’t that interested in the result.

It’s hard to blame them. It’s an exclusively east coast matchup. There’s no plucky underdog story to get behind. It features the Patriots again and most fans are frankly sick of seeing them in the game every year while also not caring for Philadelphia and its notoriously rowdy fan base. Not that either team cares of course. They’re just trying to fulfill their dreams of being champions. This game, boring lead-in or not, is an interesting one to predict.

Biggest subplot:  Nick Foles chases elusive prize

The Rocky theme must’ve been blaring in the ears of Nick Foles for two solid weeks now. It’s a perfect setup. The plucky underdog comes out of nowhere to give the champ the fight of his life. Foles though is chasing a bit of unique history. In the Super Bowl era, the big game was won by a backup quarterback eight times. This means quarterbacks who did not begin the respective season as the starter but had to come off the bench due to injury or poor play.

It’s quite a unique collection of names that include Roger Staubach, Terry Bradshaw, Jim Plunkett, Doug Williams, Jeff Hostetler, Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer and Tom Brady. There is one caveat to this list though. Seven of those men defeated a counterpart who had no knowledge of how to win a Super Bowl at that time. The only exception? That would be Brady against the Rams in 2001. Foles will have to go above and beyond that since Brady has four more rings than Warner did back then.

Key matchup:  Malcolm Jenkins vs. Rob Gronkowski

Make no mistake. The Patriots won the Super Bowl last year without Gronkowski. They also took care of business after he went down in the AFC championship too. So it’s not like they need him to win. Having him just makes life that much more difficult. Want an idea of how impactful he can be in a game. In 12 postseason appearances across his career, the Patriots are 6-1 when Gronkowski scores a touchdown in a game. They’re also 6-1 when he has five or more catches.

In other words, it’s a bad idea to let him get going. Problem is it’s so incredibly difficult to stop that from happening. Luckily the Eagles might have a secret weapon. That’s safety Malcolm Jenkins. He was one of the smartest, most athletic players at his position in the NFL. Thus far in the playoffs, the Eagles have done marvelous against opposing tight ends. Austin Hooper had one catch for three yards and Kyle Rudolph had one catch for 25 yards. Then again Gronkowski is the final exam.

The Eagles win if:  They can pressure Brady late

There’s a reason the Patriots are so hard to beat. They know a team has to play a full 60 minutes to win and they’ve conditioned themselves in that mindset. It doesn’t matter if they’re dominated for the first 30 or 45 minutes. Sooner or later the opponent will leave the window open and Brady is often the one to jump through it. Part of the reason for that is his ability to tire out defenses. He’s been pressured early in games all year but quite often that pressure tends to dissipate by the 4th quarter. This will be the challenge to the Eagles defense. Can they keep the heat on him for 60 minutes?

The Patriots win if:  They win the turnover battle

If one were to find a particular stat that has driven the success of the Eagles all season long, it’s the giveaway/takeaway ratio. In 2017 the Eagles were a perfect 13-0 when they were neutral or won the turnover battle against an opponent. However, they were just 2-3 when they lost it. In other words, their capacity to dominate the competition is heavily reliant on their ability to protect the football. This might be the trickiest part for the Patriots. They only forced 22 takeaways during the regular season and have yet to force one in their playoff run this year. The good news? In all five Super Bowl wins dating back to 2001, New England has forced at least one turnover.

Next: 2018 NFL Mock Draft: Kirk Cousins Creates Quarterback Scramble

Prediction:  Patriots win 23-19

Beating New England in the Super Bowl is hard. Really hard. Time has proven that true since only one of six possible teams has pulled it off. The common thread in those two defeats? The opposing quarterback had to make a huge drive in the 4th quarter headlined by a once-in-a-lifetime throw and catch. Eli Manning did it twice. Does Foles have that sort of drive in him when the time comes? Smart money says he doesn’t.