Chicago Bears: Week 1 Pick vs. the Atlanta Falcons

CHICAGO, IL – NOVEMBER 27: Quarterback Matt Barkley /

The Chicago Bears know exactly what they’re facing with the start of this 2017 schedule, and it begins with the tall task of taking down the Atlanta Falcons.

What is there to say? They’re the reigning NFC champions with the quarterback who won MVP honors last year. From a pure talent perspective, at least on paper the Falcons look like the superior team. Chicago was 3-13 last season, its worst finish since Apollo 11 landed on the Moon. They’ve completely revamped whole sections of their roster including the quarterbacks where veteran Mike Glennon, an old foe of the Falcons from Tampa Bay, will get the start.

Most national experts aren’t giving them a chance. Can they win? Of course they can. This is the NFL. It’s a matter of whether or not they can do the things necessary to make it happen. Here are the three vital keys to do so and whether the prediction sees it coming true.

Key #1: Feed Jordan Howard

The Falcons defense has some nice playmakers scatter about, but what it is not is a defense that sets the tone at the line of scrimmage. They’re about taking advantage of opportunities. Teams were able to run for at least 100 yards on the ground 11 different times in 2016. Two of the four highest totals they surrendered led to defeats. The other two were narrow victories. Long story short this means the Bears have every incentive to load up the wagon and hitch it to Jordan Howard.

Key #2: Stay the (bleep) back on defense

One of the reasons the Falcons were so devastating on offense last year was their ability to hit for big plays. Matt Ryan averaged a career-high 13.3 yards per completion. With guys like Julio Jones and Taylor Gabriel at wide receiver, it’s easy to understand why. This should set the Bears defense up with a simple mission. Do not allow for big plays. Keep the secondary back and force the Falcons to work their way down the field. It might be a passive approach, but it’s better than the alternative.

Key #3: Stop Devonta Freeman

Stopping Atlanta’s ground attack is a herculean task because they have a deep backfield and a franchise quarterback keeping extra defenders out of the box. Devonta Freeman has taken advantage of this the most. However, when teams are able to stop him and make the Falcons one dimensional, they have success. Atlanta’s three worst rushing performances in 2016 all ended in defeat. That is all the incentive the Bears need to lock down every rushing lane.

Pick: Bears win 23-21

If the Patriots could fall so convincingly at home, why can’t the Falcons on the road? Okay maybe it’s because the Bears aren’t the Chiefs but still. There is plenty of smoke around this game that hints at an upset in the making. Atlanta hasn’t won in Chicago for 34 years. Matt Ryan hasn’t beaten the Bears since he was a rookie. Never mind the very real Super Bowl hangover and the loss of Kyle Shanahan at offensive coordinator. Look for the Bears to squeeze out the win on a late field goal.

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