NFL Quarterback Sophomore Slump: Fact or Fiction
Will Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott suffer a sophomore slump, or will history prove there’s no such thing?
Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott enter their second NFL seasons with tremendous pressure on their shoulders to win the NFC East. Wentz was gifted with Pro Bowl playmakers on offense, while Prescott hopes to have running back Zeke Elliott and Dez Bryant back for an entire season.
Critics to the two quarterbacks say it’s likely they’ll take a step back this season, not because of a lack of talent or physical limitation, but because of the mythical “sophomore slump.”
Are quarterbacks really doomed to take a step back in their development as a second-year starter?
We’ll look at the most recent quarterbacks that have made consistent starts through their first and second years in the NFL. That eliminates players such as Trevor Siemian and Johnny Manziel.
Two quarterbacks will be entering their third season after getting consistent starts as a rookie and sophomore: Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, the top two picks in the 2015 NFL Draft.
Winston started immediately for Tampa Bay, and has never missed a game in his NFL career. Tampa Bay added another win to their name in Winston’s second year, and his stats either improved or stayed relatively the same.
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A similar story has been written in the case of Marcus Mariota, who’s missed five games with an injury. The Heisman winning Ducks quarterback nearly took a three win Titans team to the playoffs with eight wins as a sophomore.
Along with the increased number of wins was an increase in production from Mariota, who threw more touchdowns and lowered his interception rate as a sophomore.
His completion percentage, yards per attempt, and yards per game were virtually identical despite throwing nearly 100 additional passes in 2016.
I believe it’s fair to say neither Winston nor Mariota suffered the sophomore slump last year.
A surprise pick third overall by the Jaguars in 2014 was Blake Bortles from UCF, whose career has experienced incredible highs and lows. After starting just 13 games as a rookie with 17 interceptions Bortles threw 35 touchdowns and led the league with 18 picks. Turnovers continue to be an issue for Bortles, but from a point production standpoint, he didn’t slump throwing 35 touchdowns.
Teddy Bridgewater took the seven win Vikings to a double-digit playoff team as a sophomore before suffering a potentially career-threatening injury prior to last season. As a sophomore Bridgewater turned the ball over four times fewer despite playing three more games, and used his legs in the red zone much more consistently.
Derek Carr has excelled in his first three years and became the highest paid player in the game. Starting all 32 games his first two seasons with the Raiders Carr saw his passing yards and touchdowns increase.
No slump coming out of Raider Nation.
From all the evidence we’ve seen from the last batch of young quarterbacks in recent years, there’s little evidence of decline.
Next: 2018 NFL Mock Draft: Offense dominates early
Unless there’s a change in physical health or the team around a player, there’s little chance a dramatic decline will occur between years one and two. Don’t worry Wentz and Prescott fans, history is on their side.