2018 NFL Draft: Josh Allen battling Sam Darnold for the top QB spot

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Nov 5, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Sam Darnold (14) throws a pass against the Oregon Ducks during a NCAA football game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /

Where Sam Darnold Wins

Perhaps the most impressive part of Darnold’s game is his poise. Despite being a redshirt freshman with 10 career starts, he possesses the poise of a fifth-year senior with 40 starts under his belt. This allows him to stay calm when pressured and wait for a receiver to create separation. When pressured last season, the USC QB threw eight touchdowns compared to just three interceptions. Josh Allen on the other hand, threw 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions when facing pressure.

On this play against Colorado, Darnold faces a blitz. Rather than panicking and leaving the pocket, which most college quarterbacks including Josh Allen would do, Darnold remains calm and steps up in the pocket. He bides his time and continues through his progressions until he finds an open receiver coming across the middle of the field.

Darnold also displays the awareness and athletic ability to leave the pocket when he has to. In the play below, UCLA only sends four rushers, however all four have a chance to bring down Darnold at some point during the play. The freshman QB is able to avoid the rush while keeping his head up and eyes downfield throughout the play. He rolls to his left and unloads a strike to his receiver along the sideline. He’s able to put enough zip on the ball to convert on third down and prevent the closing defender from making a play, all while taking a shot from 2017 first-round pick Takkarist McKinley.

That third down conversion was far from the only play Darnold made to keep a drive alive. For the season, 50.5 percent of Darnold’s third down throws were converted into first downs. That’s better than Josh Allen’s conversion rate of 42.7 percent and much higher than UCLA’s Josh Rosen, arguably the third best QB eligible for the 2018 NFL Draft, who converted on just 34.3 percent of third down passes.

Darnold’s decision making is a big reason why he’s able to maintain such a high conversion rate. He demonstrates very good mental processing skills both before and after the snap. This was on full display late in the Colorado game. On another third down, this time midway through the fourth quarter of a tie game, Darnold recognizes the defense and changes the play. He understands the pressure is coming and quickly finds an open passing lane. He doesn’t waste time setting his feet and once the tight end to the left finishes crossing paths with the receiver to the right, Darnold fires the pass for a wide open touchdown.

The football intelligence shown by Darnold late in games played a huge role in USC’s success down the stretch as the Trojans won nine games in-a-row to close the season. Along the way, the first-year starter completed a very impressive 72.3 percent of his passes in the fourth quarter. He wasn’t much worse in the first three quarters either, completing 67.2 percent of his passes overall.

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Very good ball placement by Darnold not only allowed him to complete passes, but it gave his receivers the opportunity to maximize yards after the catch. His receivers, especially JuJu Smith-Schuster, were able to take advantage of Darnold’s pinpoint accuracy and turn upfield quickly to find their way into the open field. Darnold will look to maintain a high completion percentage moving forward, while Allen must improve upon his career completion rate of 56.2 percent.

Whether or not you believe win percentage should be a part of a quarterback’s evaluation, the difference in both win and completion percentage between Darnold and Allen is staggering. Since 2000, 48 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Of those 48, here’s the list of those with at least a 90 percent win rate and 65 percent completion rate.

Oct 1, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Sam Darnold (14) throws the ball during the second half against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports /

Deshaun Watson
Jameis Winston
Cam Newton
Alex Smith

Sam Darnold would land on this list if he can maintain his current win (90%) and completion (67.2%) rates.

On the other hand, here’s the list of first-round quarterbacks with win and completion rates under 60%:

Jake Locker
Josh Freeman
Brady Quinn
Jay Cutler
J.P. Losman
Kyle Boller
Patrick Ramsey

Both Josh Allen and Josh Rosen currently fall below 60 percent in both categories.

When looking at the names on each list, Darnold appears to be the much safer and wiser selection in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft.

On one of the few occasions when Darnold did make a mistake, he was able to bounce back quickly. The USC signal caller turned the ball over 14 times (nine interceptions and five fumbles lost) last season. On drives following those turnovers, Darnold led his team to an average of 3.71 points. Josh Allen turned the ball over 20 times (15 interceptions and five fumbles lost) last year with Wyoming scoring an average of just 1.75 points the following drive.

If compared to the 10 quarterbacks selected in the 2017 NFL Draft, Darnold would have ranked number one in the category, while Allen would have been eighth. Darnold clearly has the edge when it comes to mental toughness.

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Over the course of the next 11 months, there will be plenty of discussion as to who the top QB in the 2018 NFL Draft really is. Both Allen and Darnold will have their fair share of supporters and detractors and each clearly has many more pros than cons to their game. While the debate between Allen and Darnold (and possibly Josh Rosen) will rage on, in the end it will come down to which traits each NFL team value the most in a quarterback.

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