Oakland Raiders: Football Outsiders Predicts 2017 Record
By Erik Lambert
Football Outsiders is an organization that takes the NFL and its sport to the absolute zenith of math breakdown, and the Oakland Raiders were their new subject.
In a collaboration with ESPN, the experts for the website used their DVOA ratings (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) to help determine the final records for the 2017 season. Together with league regressions trends, personnel and coaching changes they’re able to arrive at a number that seems realistic for the team going into this season. It’s a bit technical, but no less fascinating. Besides, Raiders fans are going to love the final result.
Based on the crunched numbers, the AFC West is going to be a dogfight. That’s no surprise given how close all four teams are in terms of quality. In the end though it will be the Silver and Black finally claiming their first division title since 2002.
"Oakland Raiders: 9-7 (8.9 mean wins; SOS: 13)Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8 (8.2 mean wins; SOS: 6)Los Angeles Chargers: 8-8 (7.5 mean wins; SOS: 14)Denver Broncos: 6-10 (6.1 mean wins; SOS: 7)“You may be surprised these projected records for the AFC West aren’t higher, but it’s a product of schedule, exchanging the South divisions for the East divisions. Oakland is still our favorite for 2017, thanks to a top-10 offense and a defense that should improve with a healthy year from pass-rusher Mario Edwards Jr. and the addition of Oakland’s first three draft selections.”"
It shouldn’t be a huge surprise that the Raiders are getting that kind of respect. After all, they now have the best quarterback in the division. Trevor Siemian and Alex Smith are nowhere near his level. Philip Rivers was once but he’s 35. Carr is has both youth and talent on his side. If he stays healthy and gets an assist from the defense and Marshawn Lynch, this Oakland team should be a major player on the AFC stage.
Yes, that includes being a legitimate threat to the Patriots and Steelers. Having the quarterbacks is always half the puzzle. Their draft and free agency moves over the past few months should put them into the conversation. Might it be too early? Perhaps. Still, this team is close. They know that much.