Houston Texans Are Likeliest of the First-To-Worst NFL Teams

Jan 14, 2017; Foxborough, MA, USA; Houston Texans nose tackle Vince Wilfork (75) on the field against the New England Patriots in the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports /

People love to talk about worst-to-first possibilities in the NFL all the time. Well what about the opposite? It can happen and the Houston Texans are in the most danger.

For those struggling to keep track, a first-to-worst scenario is simple. Which team that won their division in 2016 has the biggest chances of dropping to dead last in 2017. It sounds ludicrous to think about but is it really? Don’t forget the Carolina Panthers were 15-1 in 2015 and made the Super Bowl. A year later they dropped to 6-10 and finished at the back end of the NFC South. It can happen more often than people care to admit.

So why pick on the Texans? A simple case of being outmatched. Not in overall roster composition. From that perspective they’re still a very promising team with championship capability. The problem is the other division winners from last year have a huge advantage. All of them boasted a Pro Bowl quarterback under center.

Patriots: Tom Brady
Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger
Chiefs: Alex Smith
Falcons: Matt Ryan
Packers: Aaron Rodgers
Seahawks: Russell Wilson
Cowboys: Dak Prescott

More from NFL Mocks

Houston is of course trying to move in that direction after trading up to secure Deshaun Watson in the draft. Even so, he’s still a rookie quarterback. The odds of him duplicating what Prescott did last year aren’t favorable. The Texans have neither the offensive line nor the running game Dallas did to make that work out how it did.

Facing reality

Besides that is the fact that every other team in the division looks even better than they did last season. Jacksonville improved their offensive line and running game while getting a dose of discipline from Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone. Tennessee got Marcus Mariota new toys on offense. Indianapolis significantly improved their talent and depth on defense to help compliment Andrew Luck.

Of course the Texans still have their defense but did lose two key pieces to free agency in A.J. Bouye and Quintin Demps. J.J. Watt returning is a potential boon but even then great defenses can’t do everything alone. Not in a league where the rules revolve around the quarterback position. It is there where this team will either avoid the prediction or bring it to fruition.

Home/NFL Hot Takes