Justin Davis, RB, USC: 2017 NFL Draft Scouting Report
After finishing an injury-plagued career at USC, running back Justin Davis is ready to prove he belongs in an NFL backfield.
Player Summary
Justin Davis, a 2013 four-star recruit, started 15 of 43 career games for USC. He missed three games in 2016 due to a high ankle sprain, the season opener in 2015 with hamstring and rib injuries and the final seven games of the 2013 campaign with an ankle injury.
In his career, Davis carried the ball 461 times for 2,465 yards and 19 touchdowns. He also added 46 receptions for 400 yards and two scores. He fumbled the ball nine times on 518 career touches, the sixth-worst rate among 31 running backs invited to the 2017 Scouting Combine.
Davis played for four different head coaches and two offensive coordinators during his time with the Trojans. He possesses adequate size and length with good athletic ability.
Measureables
Height: 6’0” 1/2
Weight: 208 lbs.
Arm Length: 31”
Hand Size: 9-5/8”
Pro Day Numbers
40-Yard Dash: 4.62 seconds
Bench Press: 21 reps (Scouting Combine)
Vertical Jump: 30”
Broad Jump: 9’7”
3-Cone Drill: 6.87 seconds
Short Shuttle: 4.34 seconds
Games Watched
2016: Penn State, Stanford, UCLA, Utah
2015: Oregon
Strengths
Justin Davis displays solid mental processing skills as he stays patient and will wait for a running lane to open up. He utilizes very good vision to find the opening and possesses the lateral agility necessary to move down the line and make one cut before driving upfield.
This can be seen in the following play as Davis takes the handoff and makes an initial cut behind the line of scrimmage. He then shows off very good lateral agility as he moves to his left while looking for an open lane. Once spotted, he makes his move and drives upfield, bursting through the opening for a big gain.
As seen in that play, Davis possesses the play speed necessary to hit the hole before it closes. Once in the open field, he demonstrates solid elusiveness as he escapes would-be tacklers. That elusiveness wasn’t seen often in 2016 as he was battling a high ankle sprain, but the time off before the Rose Bowl allowed him to recover enough to make plays like the one below. Against Penn State, he burst through the first level of the defense before weaving his way through the secondary on his way to a 24-yard gain.
Elusiveness isn’t the only way for Davis to pick up extra yardage in the open field. He also displays solid play strength by pushing the pile forward. On this play against the Ducks, Davis keeps his legs churning and picks up an additional 15 yards after being first wrapped up.
In the passing game, Davis possesses a good catch radius as he adjusts well to passes around his frame. Once he hauls in the pass, he gathers himself and turns upfield quickly.
Weaknesses
Justin Davis does a marginal job of improvising when the play breaks down and will take a loss when a running lane doesn’t develop. While elusive in the open field, he lacks the breakaway speed to separate from the defense. He struggles to maximize yards after contact on a consistent basis as a result of a poor ability to break tackles.
Ball security is a major issue with Davis and is something NFL coaches will look to improve immediately. He fumbled on 1.74 percent of his career touches; much higher than the 1.11 percent average of the 31 running backs who participated in this year’s Scouting Combine.
In the passing game, Davis was primarily asked to run screens. He’s a marginal route runner who is slow in and out of his breaks. He’s a poor blocker who showed little effort slowing down defenders on their way to the quarterback. Here’s an example of this as Davis simply throws himself to the ground rather than pick up the defender blitzing through the A gap between the center and left guard.
Davis failed to rise to the occasion in big games as a result of adequate competitive toughness. In eight career games versus an opponent ranked in the top 10, he averaged just 42 rushing yards per game and ran for just one touchdown. As a senior in 2016, those numbers were even worse. He averaged 28 yards per game and failed to run for a touchdown in four such contests.
Injuries are a big red flag with Davis and each team will be taking a close look at his medicals before writing his name on a draft card. He’s missed time with hamstring and rib injuries, but the ankle is what teams will be zeroing in on. He missed the final seven games of his freshman campaign because of an ankle injury and three games in 2016 for the same reason. He was diagnosed with a high ankle sprain this season, which also forced him out of the East-West Shrine Game.
USC Trojans Football
Overall
Overall, Justin Davis is a backup running back in a zone rushing attack who wins with vision and athletic ability. He’s not a back who should be counted on to block out of the backfield. He wasn’t used often in the USC passing attack, however this could be where he finds his first opportunity with an NFL offense.
Injury history and ball security issues will prevent Davis from being considered a feature back, however he has shown enough athleticism to warrant a late-round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. His ability to contribute in a variety of ways, both on offense and special teams, will force NFL teams to take a long look at him on day three of the draft.
Davis is a developmental prospect who should make an NFL roster as a third-string running back. He’s much better suited for a zone blocking scheme than a man blocking scheme due to his vision and one-cut ability.