How Dak Prescott Is Feeding The Ultimate NFL Draft Mirage
By Erik Lambert
The NFL draft is far from a perfect science. Especially when it comes to identifying great quarterbacks. Just ask Dak Prescott.
Okay maybe great is a little bit premature but you get the idea. While Jared Goff, the #1 overall pick floundered in Los Angeles, Prescott went to the Pro Bowl as a 4th rounder for Dallas. Ignoring the fact that the talent level of those two offenses were light years apart, this was just the latest proof that evaluations can often be skewed by some of the silliest things.
Tom Brady of course is the ultimate example of this. However, at the same time these types of hidden gem discoveries also have a detrimental impact across the NFL. It gives teams and fans hope. It makes them believe that it’s okay to just wait on drafting a quarterback until later. Grab two studs at other positions then just get one in the 3rd or 4th rounds. He’ll develop into a star eventually, right?
No. In fact the odds of that happening are staggeringly low. Since 1970, a total of 532 quarterbacks have been selected in the third round or later of a draft. Out of that number, 40 have managed to reach the Pro Bowl at least once in their careers. From that group, only six have won a championship. In other words it goes like this.
- Odds of landing Pro Bowler in 3rd round or later: 7.51%
- Odds of landing a champion in 3rd round or later: 1.12%
In other words a team would have to hit the state lottery to get a good player and the national lottery to get a great one. It’s blind luck. This is why it’s so important to keep people grounded in reality. Even though quarterbacks may seem like reaches in the 1st or 2nd round versus other players, the bottom line is the importance of the position makes the risk worth it. Waiting until later sounds nice in a movie script, but the odds are heavily stacked against any team that tries it.