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2016 Preview: Western Kentucky Looks to Defend Conference USA Crown

By Shawn Spencer

Sep 19, 2015; Bloomington, IN, USA; Indiana Hoosiers memorial stadium reflection seen in one of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers helmets during warms up before the game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 19, 2015; Bloomington, IN, USA; Indiana Hoosiers memorial stadium reflection seen in one of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers helmets during warms up before the game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports /
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Dec 5, 2015; Bowling Green, KY, USA; The trophy on display during the first half of the Conference USA football championship game between Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won 45-28. Mandatory Credit: Joshua Lindsey-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 5, 2015; Bowling Green, KY, USA; The trophy on display during the first half of the Conference USA football championship game between Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won 45-28. Mandatory Credit: Joshua Lindsey-USA TODAY Sports /

Final Prediction

Even if every player from the 2015 team was returning, it would be difficult to duplicate last season’s success. With less than half of the starting lineup back in 2016, 12-2 appears unobtainable. While that doesn’t mean another Conference USA championship is out of reach, the path will be much more difficult.

The only two losses Western Kentucky suffered last season were to power five opponents Indiana and LSU. They opened the season by beating Vanderbilt, another power five school. This season, the Hilltoppers have two, rather than three power five schools on the schedule; both from the SEC. On the road against Alabama can be marked down as a loss, while a rematch against Vanderbilt figures to go the Commodores way this time around. It’s the other 10 games that will determine exactly how lucrative a bowl game Western Kentucky can earn an invitation to.

The season begins at home against Rice, a conference opponent Western Kentucky beat by 39 points last year. The Owls defense allowed more yards per play than any other FBS team in 2015 and will struggle to slow down the Hilltoppers offense. After the opener, Western Kentucky will play four consecutive non-conference games. Alabama and Vanderbilt were already predicted as losses, but the Hilltoppers shouldn’t have any trouble beating Miami Ohio or Houston Baptist. After this stretch, Western Kentucky finishes the regular season with seven games against Conference USA opponents.

This stretch begins with two difficult tests on the road against Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee. The matchup against Louisiana Tech will be especially intriguing as both schools will be starting new quarterbacks, are loaded at receiver and are undergoing major changes on defense. This will be a high-scoring affair with Western Kentucky having a slight edge because of a proven rushing attack. Louisiana Tech lost Kenneth Dixon to the NFL, while Western Kentucky still has Leon Allen, Anthony Wales and D’Andre Ferby running the ball.

Middle Tennessee should be a much-improved squad this year with QB Brent Stockstill and WR Richie James having a year under their belts. As freshmen last season, Stockstill threw for over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns, while James caught 108 passes for 1,346 yards and eight scores. It would be a letdown if this game yielded less than 100 combined points. If any team is going to take the east division crown away from Western Kentucky, it’s going to be Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders will win this game, dropping Western Kentucky to 4-3.

Three of the next four games are at home, but all four should end up in the win column. Western Kentucky will cruise through Old Dominion, Florida Atlantic, Florida International and North Texas. This stretch will help generate momentum for the Hilltoppers prior to the regular season finale against Marshall.

The last time Western Kentucky played at Marshall, the history books had to be re-written. Quarterbacks Brandon Doughty and Rakeem Cato combined to throw 15 touchdown passes as the Hilltoppers came out on top 67-66 after converting a two-point conversion in overtime. Marshall had their eyes set on a New Year’s Six bowl, however the loss dropped the previously undefeated Thundering Herd to 11-1. Instead of a New Year’s Six berth, Marshall had to settle for the Boca Raton Bowl. Revenge will be on the minds of every coach, player and fan wearing green at this game. Western Kentucky has an extra week to prepare, but it won’t matter. Marshall will get their revenge, ending Western Kentucky’s quest for another division title.

At 8-4 (6-2 in conference), Western Kentucky will fall just short of another division title. The Hilltoppers will still earn a bowl berth and will likely head to either the Boca Raton Bowl against a school from the American Athletic Conference or the Heart of Dallas Bowl to take on a member of the Big Ten. The Heart of Dallas Bowl would prefer Louisiana Tech due to proximity, so Western Kentucky winds up in Boca Raton against Tulsa.

The Golden Hurricane fell three points shy of upsetting Virginia Tech in last year’s Independence Bowl; Frank Beamer’s final game as head coach. This time around Tulsa and their high-powered offense come away with a win, dropping Western Kentucky to 8-5 on the year.

Eight wins with an overturned roster will be an impressive showing for Jeff Brohm, and will certainly attract the attention of a few power five programs. Unfortunately for Western Kentucky, the school won’t be able to match the offers Brohm is going to receive next offseason and he’ll be out the door. Final prediction for Western Kentucky is 8-5 with head coach Jeff Brohm and his offensive scheme heading to West Virginia to replace Dana Holgorsen after another disappointing season for the Mountaineers.

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