Could Leonard Fournette be Selected First Overall in 2017 NFL Draft?

After a two-year absence from round one of the NFL Draft, the running back position reemerged during the draft’s opening night last year. The then St. Louis Rams selected Todd Gurley with the 10th overall pick of that 2015 draft, followed by Melvin Gordon heading to San Diego.

This year, the Dallas Cowboys used the fourth overall pick to select Ezekiel Elliott. The trend of first-round backs is expected to continue in 2017, but is there a cap on how early a RB can, or should be drafted? LSU star Leonard Fournette is about to put this to the test.

Fournette is about to begin his junior campaign with the Tigers and is therefore eligible to declare for the 2017 draft. While he isn’t required to enter the draft after the 2016 season, it’s as likely as fans clamoring for a Tim Tebow return to the NFL at some point this year. As a result, he’ll be put under the microscope as much as any other player in college football this upcoming season. Every aspect of his game from lane choices to blocking assignments will be dissected and criticized for the sake of finding a weakness in his game.

One of the more popular knocks on Fournette has to do with his performance in big games; specifically against Alabama. In two contests against the Crimson Tide, he’s run the ball 40 times for a grand total of 110 yards. To put that into perspective, Fournette ran for more than 110 yards in nine of 12 games in 2015.

Quarterback play certainly hasn’t helped create balance against Nick Saban’s squad, as LSU has completed an average of seven passes for 102 yards against Alabama over the past two years. As seen in the play below, when the defense doesn’t respect the pass, the run will be stuffed regardless of who’s carrying the ball.

It’s not as if Fournette is the only running back who has been shut down by the Crimson Tide defense either. Over the past two years, only Ezekiel Elliott of Ohio State, Jalen Hurd of Tennessee and Nick Chubb of Georgia have rushed for more yards against Alabama than Fournette. The Tide may be Fournette’s Achilles’ heel, but he’ll have one more chance to make a statement when the two teams collide this November.

More from NFL Mocks

Another element of the 2017 NFL Draft that may deter teams from drafting a RB first overall is the avalanche of talented backs expected to declare. It’s still very early, but four running backs winding up in the first round isn’t out of the question. Along with Fournette, Nick Chubb (Georgia), Dalvin Cook (Florida State) and Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) have already generated first-round buzz.

Additionally, Jalen Hurd, Corey Clement (Wisconsin), James Conner (Pittsburgh), Royce Freeman (Oregon), Wayne Gallman (Clemson) and Samaje Perine (Oklahoma) are potential selections on day two. With so many skilled backs available throughout the draft, it may be tough to sell decision makers into spending a top pick on a RB.

Despite the reasons listed above, Leonard Fournette will be in the running for the first overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Why? Here’s a look at what makes the LSU star so special.

Although those are just a few of his career carries, it’s clear he’s as talented as anyone in college football with the ball in his hands. In the plays above, Fournette displays the vision, burst and finishing ability, as well as several other traits, needed to excel at the next level. Throw in almost any game tape from his first two seasons and he’ll make plays just like the ones above. He’s an elite runner who should transition smoothly into the NFL.

The top RB prospects aren’t just elite runners. One reason why Ezekiel Elliott was drafted number four overall is because he can play all three downs. His running ability is well documented, however he’s also a solid pass catcher and an even better pass protector. In 2015, Elliott allowed just two sacks and finished with a 97.2 percent success rate as a pass blocker. While he doesn’t receive near the credit Elliott does, Fournette pass protects at a high level as well. He allowed only one sack and had a 95.6 percent success rate protecting his QB. Those rates are much higher than traditional two-down backs such as Alabama’s Derrick Henry (89.1 percent) and Dalvin Cook of Florida State (88.2 percent).

Of course which team winds up with the first pick will be a determining factor, as not every franchise will consider drafting a RB in the first round. Based on early Super Bowl odds, the Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers, San Diego Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars are projected to be in the running for the first pick. The Browns and Jaguars are in need of a young back and the 49ers may be as well if Carlos Hyde doesn’t impress Chip Kelly this season. Although not likely, even the Chargers may be willing to draft a replacement for 2015 first-round pick Melvin Gordon if he continues to struggle. This bodes well for Fournette as even if he doesn’t go first overall, it’s unlikely he drops very far at all.

Before he even played a down at LSU, Fournette was already being compared to Michael Jordan. While Jordan won an NCAA title at North Carolina, LSU hasn’t had similar success with Fournette. The blame certainly shouldn’t be placed on him, however it does symbolize how small of an impact a RB has on today’s game. This is especially true when compared to quarterbacks and is why a signal caller such as Clemson’s Deshaun Watson is the favorite to be selected with the first pick in 2017 if he declares.

So is it possible Fournette becomes the first running back since Ki-Jana Carter in 1995 to be selected number one overall? Of course it’s possible, but remember this…even Michael Jordan wasn’t chosen first in the draft.

Home/NFL Draft