NFL Draft predictions are a crapshoot 95% of the time. No matter how much films you watch or insider information you have, there will always be unanticipated moves.
One of the predictions that seems to be a constant this offseason leading up to the NFL Draft is Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott going eighth overall to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Do the Eagles need a running back this year? Not necessarily. They still have Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles, and Kenjon Barner. Mathews was the Eagles most productive running back last season totaling six touchdowns and over 500 rushing yards. Sproles had three touchdowns of his own on the ground, as well as several as a return specialist.
The knocks on those two are age and injury concerns. Age for Sproles is going to be bigger than injuries and vice-versa for Mathews. Regardless, those two carried the Eagles running game when DeMarco Murray failed to produce in Chip Kelly’s system.
Now back to Elliott. If the Eagles are going to draft him, they will need to do it with the eighth overall pick. Like many people, I am heavily against drafting a running back in the first round, let alone in the top 10.
Let’s look at all of the first round running backs since 2008 and where they stand right now.
Since '08 there have been 16 1st rnd RB. 5 are retired. All 5 were taken between the 22nd & 32nd overall pick. Trend with #DerrickHenry?
— George Stockburger (@StockburgerNews) April 14, 2016
As you can see, the majority of first round running backs in recent years have not developed into long-term franchise starters.
History has proven that taking a first round running back does not generate the same value as say a first round defensive back or wide receiver.
So how does this affect the Eagles? Like I said earlier, I don’t see value in taking Ezekiel Elliott with the eighth overall pick. I see someone such as cornerback Vernon Hargreaves as a pick that will bring much more value.
I still believe the Eagles should draft a running back later in the NFL Draft. With two third round, a fourth, and a fifth round picks the Eagles are in good position to grab a running back in the middle of the draft.
Look for names such as Alex Collins from Arkansas, Paul Perkins from UCLA, and CJ Procise from Notre Dame. All three are incredibly talented running backs and would provide much greater value.