NFL Draft: How valuable are Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry?

2016 NFL Draft: Just how valuable are Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry? Sometimes the numbers tell us a story we need to hear…

I’m not one to put a ton of stock into statistics, but it’s fun to look into them once in awhile. There are countless examples of quarterbacks who threw for 4,000 yards who didn’t make it to the NFL, or running backs who ran for 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns who simply couldn’t cut it at the NFL level.

There are those examples at every single position of guys who had great college careers statistically, but they couldn’t make the transition to the NFL for whatever reason.

I get it.

However, I want to look at a few signature stats that might indicate the value of guys like Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry and the draft’s consensus top back Ezekiel Elliott.

What makes a running back valuable in today’s NFL? Well, teams like them to be able to not only carry the ball 15-25 times a game, but they have to be able to stick their noses in and block in pass protection. They have to be able to sneak out of the backfield and catch passes.

There are a variety of responsibilities that backs are required to take on, but when you need to put a game away, what’s the most important thing? To me, it’s production in the second half of games, when the opposing team needs to be worn down, when games are won.

And both Alabama and Ohio State — the last two National Champions — know a thing or two about wearing you down late in games with their running backs. Oh yes, the signature stats I promised…

Ezekiel Elliott

1,142 yards, 7.14 YPC (!!!), 11 TD, 50 1st downs in the 2nd half/OT

For a guy who had 1,821 yards on the entire season, to have gained over 1,100 in just the second half/overtime is pretty remarkable. His 50 first downs were second in the country. His 11 touchdowns ranked 4th in the country, and his 31 plays of 10 or more yards ranked 2nd.

The stat that stands out to me is the average per carry. For a player the caliber of Elliott — the guy you know is getting the football — to gain over seven yards per carry speaks volumes not only to the offensive line of the Ohio State Buckeyes but a testament to the ability of Elliott to gain yards after contact and grind out tough yardage.

In today’s NFL, the value of a back that can wear down a defense and gain huge chunks of yards can’t be overstated. We saw in a close game in the Super Bowl how valuable a back like Elliott could have been for either team. Neither of which could really get a steady running game going.

The explosiveness of Elliott combined with his stamina and ability to break off big plays make him — in my opinion — a can’t miss prospect in this draft, someone who is going to come in and have a significant impact.

Derrick Henry

1,070 yards, 5.35 YPC, 12 TD, 51 1st downs in the 2nd half/OT

In Derrick Henry’s Heisman campaign, he was every bit as good in the second half as anyone else in the country. This wasn’t a guy who simply feasted on opponents early on and took it easy late in games. His first half numbers are better than his second half numbers, unlike Ezekiel Elliott, but Henry provided the Crimson Tide with a very valuable weapon late in games with his power and explosiveness.

Henry’s size (6-3, 240) allows him to grind out tough yards, and nobody in America had more touches (200) at RB than Derrick Henry in the second half/OT of games this season.

When you talk about a guy who can chisel away at the clock and move the chains late in games, Henry is that guy.

My Point

In case you have missed my point up to this…point…it’s that these running backs are bringing back value to the position in the NFL because teams are built for the pass and to defend the pass. If a back can come in and grind out tough yards late, their value skyrockets. But it’s not just about grinding out tough yards, it’s about getting better as the game goes on, as the season goes on.

Derrick Henry had 32 more carries than any other back in the country in December and January. 14 of his 28 touchdowns came from November-January last season. Not even Ezekiel Elliott was that dominant over the last two months of the season.

The way these guys were able to get better as the games/season went along is incredibly impressive, and something that I think is going to make them extremely valuable at the next level.