2016 NFL Free Agency: Who will get overpaid?

For every bargain signing that will happen in 2016 NFL free agency this March, teams won’t be able to escape the reality that they’re likely to make at least one or two deals that give up way too much money for way too little in return.  The Mocks crew decided to explore the market in an effort to pinpoint certain players who are likely to get overpaid this year.

Shawn Spencer:

First name that comes to mind is Brock Osweiler. The popular opinion seems to be that he’s going to return to Denver, but it’s not a lock. After being benched for the playoffs, no one truly knows what his feelings are towards Kubiak and Elway. If he does decide to leave, or at least listen to other offers, he’ll be the number one free agent target for teams in need of a quarterback. Especially in a year where there isn’t a can’t miss draft prospect at the position, the demand for Osweiler could be sky high. He has potential, but he hasn’t shown enough to warrant the large contract he’ll likely receive if he hits the open market.

Matthew Holowiak:

Alshon Jeffrey. Before you rip me to pieces, think about this: receivers of his caliber do not hit the market often, and a team in desperate need for a receiver is going to want him. I could see a bid war starting when the reality is that the amount of talented and pro ready receivers grow each year. There is no need for a mega deal here, but it will happen regardless.

Brady Lunt:

One of the first that comes to miner is Bruce Irvin. While a talented player, he is not worth the kind of money he will likely seek and possible receive in free agency. Former Seahawks defenders always seem to be overpaid and it won’t stop with Irvin. I expect him to chase a deal that is AT LEAST that of Vinny Curry’s, in that $9 million range, regardless if he’s really not worth it.

Erik Lambert:

It’s hard to get excited about the prospect of a team throwing lots of money at Russell Okung.  His big name around the league comes down to the one great year he has in 2012 that resulted in a Pro Bowl.  Since then he’s been average at best.  In addition to dealing with a variety of injuries, he’s allowed 10 sacks and 15 hits on Russell Wilson while also committing 27 penalties.  His recent play doesn’t scream not tackle money but it’s almost a given that some team out there is going to throw it his way in hopes he regains the form he had four years ago.  Frankly it’s difficult to see that happening.