Jared Goff, QB California: 2016 NFL Draft Scouting Report

October 3, 2015; Berkeley, CA, USA; California Golden Bears quarterback Jared Goff (16) passes the football against the Washington State Cougars during the first quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

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The 2013 four-star recruit has started all 36 games since arriving on campus for the Golden Bears. While a big deal was made when senior QB Connor Cook was not named a captain at Michigan State, Goff has been a captain for each of the past two seasons. He’s completed at least 60 percent of his passes and thrown for more than 3,500 yards in all three years at Cal. Good height and adequate weight with a lean frame and solid athletic ability.

Player Information

Class: Junior

Height: 6’4″

Weight: 210

Estimated 40-Yard Dash Time: 4.8s

Scheme Fit

A West Coast offense in which he can win with an accurate, quick release on short and intermediate passes to open up one-on-one matchups deep downfield.

Games Watched

2015: San Diego State, Washington, Utah, UCLA, Stanford

These were the five best defenses in terms of QB rating Goff faced in 2015.

Strengths

Very good ability to diagnose defenses pre-snap and make adjustments accordingly. Handles snaps from shotgun well and promptly positions the ball for quick release. Maintains active feet in the pocket, sliding to avoid the rush. Demonstrates solid poise by stepping up under pressure with the play strength to deliver accurate throws with a defender in his face. Good decision-making skills and situational awareness on third down, throwing the ball beyond the first-down marker.

About forty-eight percent of his third down throws resulted in a first down, higher than other top QB prospects such as Paxton Lynch (48%), Connor Cook (46.5%) and Jacoby Brissett (42.8%). Possesses the play speed to execute and make plays at the next level with a quick, over-the-top release. His arm strength when throwing the ball deep is often raved about, but more impressive is the arm strength he displays when throwing across the field from the opposite hash.

The clip below is an example of this. The ball only travels 10 yards downfield, but the throw requires an incredible amount of arm strength. Under pressure, Goff has to throw the ball flat-footed with defenders coming in both high and low. Using all upper-body strength, he delivers a strike outside the numbers on a comeback route for a first down.

When the play breaks down, Goff does a good job extending the play by navigating and escaping the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield and two hands on the ball. Showcases his athletic ability by delivering accurate throws on the move. Very good mental toughness enables him to bounce back quickly after a bad play. For example, he completed 77 percent of his throws immediately following a sack or interception. Elite football intelligence in the redzone, throwing 24 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Areas for Improvement

After taking the snap, Goff has a tendency to immediately lock in on his intended target and will stand in the pocket too long waiting for that receiver to create separation. Displays marginal touch on short and intermediate passes, firing almost exclusively fastballs.

Here’s an example of a pass in which Goff throws to a WR (bottom of the screen at the snap) bracketed by two San Diego State defenders. As you can see, he needs to throw the ball over the underneath defender while putting enough zip on the ball to prevent the deep safety from making a play. This is an NFL-caliber throw that results in an interception because Goff doesn’t put the proper touch on the ball. You’ll also see the running back wide open in the flat, but Goff never looks his way.

Despite a solid completion rate, he struggles to place the ball in a position to maximize yards after the catch. Too frequently open receivers have to slow down or go to the ground in order to adjust to a pass thrown off target. Goff displays only marginal play strength when the pressure gets to him, as he struggles to break tackles.

Question Marks

As a result of playing in Cal’s Air Raid offense, there are a few things Goff is not required to do in college that he will need to do in the NFL. This does not mean he can’t do these things, it just means he hasn’t.

-Play-Action Passing: The RB lines up next to Goff in the shotgun, so rather than turning his back to the defense, Goff is able to keep his eyes downfield and read the defense.

-Under Center: This has become less important recently as many NFL quarterbacks now take a majority of snaps from the shotgun.

-Reading Defenses Post-Snap: Goff makes very good pre-snap decisions, but his ability to read coverages post-snap and go through progressions is largely unknown.

Overall

Overall, Jared Goff is a future starter in the NFL who has the arm talent and poise to succeed. However, there are too many unknowns at this time to draft him in the top 10 and expect him to be the face of a franchise right away. Sure Marcus Mariota ran a spread at Oregon, but Goff is nowhere near the athlete Mariota is and throws far more interceptions.

While the importance of having a franchise QB means he will likely be selected much higher, I expect to have Goff somewhere between 20th and 30th on my board. Along with Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook, Goff is in the running to be the first QB selected in the 2016 NFL Draft.

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