Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons: NFL Week 12 Picks

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Nov 29, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) talks with Minnesota Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (5) before their game at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Two teams that have gotten jolts of reality thrown their way of late.  The Minnesota Vikings were served some humble pie at home by Green Bay last week while the Atlanta Falcons are reeling from from a tailspin that has sent them from 5-0 to 6-4.  Each is in command of their own playoff destinies with rosters capable of making it to January.  This game could very well be the start of something, good or bad.

Backdrop:

The offensive line situation for the Vikings has put a cap on what Teddy Bridgewater can do.  Though he remains efficient and hard to rattle as ever, the lack of explosiveness in the passing game was what got them into trouble against the Packers, allowing Aaron Rodgers and Eddie Lacy to wear down the defense.  That can’t happen again because Matt Ryan is sure to try a similar strategy if he gets similar results from his own defense.

Having home field will help the Falcons but they need to figure out what their problem is.  For some reason they can’t seem to close out tight games when they need to, and the inability to score is a primary culprit.  Some of that has to do with a sudden rash of turnovers from Ryan (four INTs in past three games).  The string of strong defenses he’ll have to face isn’t letting up with Mike Zimmer coming to town.

Matchup to Watch:

RB Adrian Peterson vs. MLB Paul Worrilow

Atlanta, for all the things they’ve struggled with on defense of late, continues to suffocate teams on the ground.  They rank #1 overall with just 87 yards allowed per game.  Leading the charge has been middle linebacker Paul Worrilow.  For what he lacks in overall ability, he makes up for it with intelligence, instinct and tenacity.  He’ll need all of that against Adrian Peterson who is sure to see the football more than the 13 times he did against Green Bay.  The 30-year old running back is already over 1,000 yards for the season.

Key Stat:

Devonta Freeman is out, which means Atlanta has to hope they can find somebody else to exploit what has been a questionable Vikings run defense.  It is allowing 118 yards per game for the season and threatens to become their Achilles heel if teams begin to game plan towards it.  One can bet the Falcons will try, and it will be forgotten rookie Tevin Coleman leading the charge.  He is only averaging 3.9 yards per carry, so time will tell.

Prediction:  Vikings win 20-17

Their loss to Green Bay opened some eyes, but at the end of the day the Vikings are still a good team and still lead the NFC North.  Their defense should set the tone against a struggle Falcons offense and Adrian Peterson will do enough to open up some passing opportunities for Bridgewater, especially in that dome where those speedy receivers will have a chance to shine.