Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys: NFL Thanksgiving Picks

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Nov 22, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) throws the ball during the second quarter against the Washington Redskins at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

The records may say to avoid this game because it might get ugly, but in truth the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Carolina Panthers has plenty of intrigue to it.  Some believe if the home team can get by the undefeated juggernaut, they might run the table and perhaps steal a playoff spot.  So will they pull it off?

Backdrop:

The return of Tony Romo got the Cowboys off a long and arduous losing streak but will it be enough to save their fledgling playoff hopes.  There is no question everything boils down to this game.  Carolina represents the toughest obstacle remaining on their schedule.  A loss would assure them a .500 or worse record, which likely won’t be enough to knock them from contention, even in the NFC East.

The Panthers meanwhile continue their hot streak and have their eyes set on home field advantage in January.  Defensive end Charles Johnson is set to return, which should give their defense even more bite than it already has.  Throw in the MVP form Cam Newton is showing and there’s no reason to think this team will be an easy out.

Matchup To Watch:

CB Josh Norman vs. WR Dez Bryant

Dallas may have other weapons but the one that makes it all go is receiver Dez Bryant.  When he does well, everything clicks.  One can bet the Panthers know this, and will make sure to put their best cornerback on the job of shutting him down.  That will be breakout star Josh Norman.

The young corner has been targeted 59 times this season by quarterbacks.  He has allowed just 29 receptions for 250 yards and one touchdown and four interceptions for a 38.1 rating.  In other words it’s become inadvisable to throw in his direction.  Will Romo take that hint or does he trust Bryant enough?

Key Stat:

This game will be won or lost in the red zone.  Carolina comes into the contest averaging 29.9 points scored.  A big reason why is their ability to finish drives.  They rank 6th overall in red zone efficiency.  On the other hand, for all the good things the Dallas defense has done this season, they do tend to struggle preventing opponents from scoring once they get inside the 20.  Just over 53% of those drive end in touchdowns.

Watch these numbers carefully in this game.

Prediction:  Panthers win 23-19

Tony Romo used to own Thanksgiving but last year (33-10 loss to Eagles) erased that mystique.  He’s still working his way back from injury and faces a far tougher opponent than he did last week.  Carolina is so well-balanced and consistent.  Unless the Cowboys catch them flatfooted, it’s hard to see them losing.