NFL Thanksgiving Game Picks: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
By Erik Lambert
Nov 9, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) during the game against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field. Green Bay won 55-14. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
It doesn’t get much better than this. One of the best rivalries in pro football on primetime television during a beloved holiday. Both Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers have a lot to be thankful for, and play for in this pivotal division matchup. Who gets the win?
Backdrop:
Prior to last week these were two teams going in opposite directions. The Packers had lost three-straight while the Bears had won two-in-a-row. Then Green Bay got a big win in Minnesota while Chicago came up just short against Denver. So the question becomes which teams will show up in this game.
Bears players still have memories of their last Lambeau visit, a scarring 55-14 humiliation. They are vowing it will be different this time, and at 4-6 they know desperation is at hand. If they want to keep their playoff hopes alive, they have to find a way past a team that has lost to them just three times since Aaron Rodgers became the started in 2008.
Matchup To Watch:
OLB Pernell McPhee vs. OT Bryan Bulaga
Part of why the Bears haven’t been able to get past the Packers of late is an inability to apply pressure on Rodgers. Their defense has not sacked him since week 4 of 2014 and that was only one time. To beat a great quarterback means to hit a great quarterback, something outside linebacker Pernell McPhee knows has to happen.
His primary target will likely be right tackle Bryan Bulaga.
The big blocker has struggled this season. Prior to last week he’d allowed a sack in four-straight games. He’s been banged up, as has McPhee, so whichever one of them cam battle through that will help decide this game.
Key Stat:
Denver showed last week that the best way to navigate what has become a stubborn Bears defense is by running it at them. Their run defense has shown signs of crack, allowing 123.7 yards per game. Much of that is due to injuries and limited personnel. Such things happen when shifting schemes.
Problem is it’s not clear whether the Packers could take advantage. They are only averaging 109.6 yards rushing for the season, 16th in the league. Can they get James Starks and Eddie Lacy going or will it be up to Rodgers to attack a pretty improved pass defense?
Prediction: Packers win 24-20
At the end of the day this comes down to two people: Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler. Rodgers owns the Bears in his career, the Packers have owned Cutler, who is 1-11 in his career against them. There is no reason to see that changing on Thanksgiving night, even if the game is a lot closer than last time.