NFL Game Picks Week 11: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
By Erik Lambert
Sep 20, 2015; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills outside linebacker Manny Lawson (91) tries to knock New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) off his pass route during the second half at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Patriots beat the Bills 40-32. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
While the overall slate of NFL game picks this weak seem to feature so-so matchups in terms of hype, there are a few gold nuggets to pick out including a huge divisional showdown between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots.
Backdrop:
It’s never not entertaining when a Rex Ryan team prepares to take on the New England Patriots. In this instance it’s the Buffalo Bills. The rematch of their earlier meeting this seasons promises to be just as thrilling with the Bills getting healthy at just the right time and coming off a big win over the Jets.
Meanwhile the Patriots are trying to survive their own string of injuries, most notably to wide receiver Julian Edelman (broken foot). Last time they were able to use Buffalo mistakes to their advantage. Have the Bills learned from that lesson or is it the same old story?
Matchup to Watch:
CB Malcolm Butler vs. WR Sammy Watkins
Part of the reason the Patriots defense has been able to function at its customary levels is the breakout play of Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler. Turns out he’s not just a one-game wonder. He’s a solid corner who has done a fine job covering the best receiver of every opponent his team has faced this season.
The Bills will present his latest challenge in Sammy Watkins, who is coming off a great learning experience against Darrelle Revis. This is certain to be a matchup that dictates the flow of the game and it’s one Buffalo absolutely has to get the better of if they want to win.
Key Stat:
Rex Ryan knows the Patriots aren’t going to beat him running the ball. So it all comes down to two keys: pressuring Tom Brady and frustrating Rob Gronkowski. That is essentially the bed rock of their offense. If the Bills can find a way to elevate their 18th ranked pass defense to meet this challenge, they have a great chance to win the game. If they don’t? The result is predictable.
Prediction: Bills win 24-21
That’s right. Picking the upset this week. Something that has become characteristic is that Rex Ryan always seems to get the Patriots at least once a year, provided his team has the talent necessary. This Bills team does and they might catch New England a little mentally exhausted from their narrow escape in New York.