Chicago Bears: Position Success Rates Based On Draft Range

Aug 13, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears head coach John Fox (left) talks with general manager Ryan Pace (right) prior to a preseason NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

The time may be right to begin an assessment of where the Chicago Bears might place their focus in the first round of the 2016 draft. While anything is possible, it’s always important to draw on history in order to determine the likelihood of success or failure. So to do that, this article will determine the success rate at every position considered a need for them dating back the last 15 years.

As of right now, according to their record and the standings, the Bears would be picking 10th in the draft next April, but there is still a chance they could swing that spot in either direction, all the way up to #1 or down to #20. We’ll hold off on the playoff talk for the time being and just keep it within current expectations.

Below is a chart that separates the draft slots by divisions of five. Within each division will be listed the top five current positions of need for the Bears according to most sources. The numbers on the list will show two things: how many players at that were position were drafted in that range since the year 2000, and how many were hits.

What constitutes a hit? To make the criteria absolutely infallible, a hit will mean a player that reached at least two Pro Bowls. In this way it becomes undisputable since many will argue a player reaching one Pro Bowl was a fluke.

Players from the most recent two drafts obviously can’t be included.

Pick #1-5 Hit Rate

QB: 11 of 25
OT: 6 of 16
OG: 0 of 0
OLB: 2 of 2
CB: 1 of 1

Pick #6-10 Hit Rate

QB: 0 of 5
OT: 2 of 9
OG: 0 of 2
OLB: 0 of 2
CB: 1 of 5

Pick #11-15 Hit Rate

QB: 1 of 3
OT: 2 of 8
OG: 1 of 2
OLB: 3 of 5
CB: 0 of 3

Pick #16-20 Hit Rate

QB: 0 of 5
OT: 0 of 10
OG: 4 of 6
OLB: 0 of 3
CB: 0 of 3

Early indications are simple enough to follow. If the Bears plan to get a quarterback, their best course of action would be to find a way into the top 5 picks. Otherwise they’re taking a low-odds gamble. However, from #6 through #15 they stand a very good chance of grabbing a quality offensive or defensive lineman/linebacker.

As for cornerback, it honestly comes down to luck. For every one that was successfully scooped in the first round, there’s an equal or greater number who turned up on days two and three. It comes down to finding them and getting them in the right scheme.

The best way to look at this is if the Bears want a quarterback, they know where they’ll likely have to be. Otherwise, expect them to focus on the trenches or secondary early in 2016.

Next: Chicago Bears Hint At Looming Purge Of Older Players

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