Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills: Week 1 Prediction

Aug 29, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) calls a play at the line against the St. Louis Rams at the Edward Jones Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

A big AFC bout is on tap right from the start as the Indianapolis Colts pay a visit to the Buffalo Bills. Which team will come out of the gates strong in week 1?

Injury News

Bills receivers on the mend and considered probable

The timing is certainly shaping up to be good for the Bills in regards to their offense as all key players in their passing game are considered probable. That includes receivers Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Percy Harvin who missed time in the preseason with various ailments. That should really lessen the pressure on Tyrod Taylor, who gets his first start.

Greg Toler out and D’Joun Smith questionable

Conversely the Colts secondary is looking a bit thin looking ahead to Sunday. Greg Toler, their starter opposite Vontae Davis is still nursing a neck problem suffered against Chicago and isn’t expected to play while promising rookie D’Joun Smith is questionable with a knee injury. This could really put a squeeze on the Colts’ depth given the fast and talented trio they must face in Buffalo.

Key Matchups

Ronald Darby vs. T.Y. Hilton

Losing veteran Leodis McKelvin was tough for Buffalo, forcing them to plug in 2nd round pick Ronald Darby as their starter at corner. Given his mix of speed but lesser size, it’s highly likely he will draw the daunting task of covering Indianapolis Pro Bowler T.Y. Hilton, perhaps the best deep threat in football. On paper this is a clear mismatch, which is why it will have a significant impact one way or the other.

Charles Clay vs. Jerrell Freeman and D’Qwell Jackson

The intent to get more explosive in the passing game was why Buffalo intentionally went out and signed tight end Charles Clay. He offers that ability to attack the middle of the field, keeping defenses away from the outside where Watkins, Harvin and Woods patrol. That means the Colts will need their linebackers to step up. Jerrell Freeman is their best in coverage while D’Qwell Jackson isn’t known for it but can hold his own.

X-Factors

LeSean McCoy vs. Colts Run D

Stopping the run has been a real source of frustration for the Colts defense. They allowed 113 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry last season and it hasn’t shown much progress of getting better. Not a good sign with All-Pro running back LeSean McCoy looming in the opener. He’s expected to play after recovering from a hamstring problem and runs behind an offensive line that produced the 4th-best rushing attack in preseason.

Colts offensive line vs. Bills pass rush

Without question this is the definite showdown of the game. Indianapolis hasn’t had the best pass protection for Andrew Luck really since he arrived in the league and it’s continued to struggle. They go against a Bills front that led the NFL in sacks last season and figures to be even more diverse with Rex Ryan running the show now. Looks ugly from here. Hopefully Indy has a game plan for it.

Prediction: Bills win 26-17

A bit of an upset here as most would expect the team with the better quarterback to win. However, while Andrew Luck is a superstar and has a cast of good weapons, he’ll be on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. The Bills are perfectly built to take advantage of the Colts’ biggest weakness, which is stopping the run. As long as they don’t make dumb mistakes, it should be their ball game.

Next: New England Patriots Over Pittsburgh Steelers: 5 Takeaways

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