How charred do you like your hot takes prepared? Here at NFL Mocks, we’re excited to provide you with the hottest content available, and with 10 days left until the NFL Draft, I’m excited to be dissecting one of the most polarizing players in the draft, one TCU linebacker Paul Dawson.
We seek to debunk the myths about this star college linebacker, as well as create truths that you can cling to when your team drafts him.
Dawson was insanely productive for the Horned Frogs with 30 tackles for loss as a non-pass rushing linebacker. This past year, he had 20 of those TFL and finished with a whopping 136 tackles in total and four interceptions, one returned for a touchdown…
Don’t be too flustered by Dawson’s poor 40 yard dash at the Combine if he’s doing that in NFL games. He also topped it by running a respectable 4.75 at the TCU Pro Day, favorable conditions or not.
At any rate, scouts and analysts are split on Dawson. Mainly because of this…
But like other numbers, sometimes there’s just far more to the story.
When I turned on Dawson’s tape, I was blown away by a couple of things. First of all, for a linebacker that had 136 tackles and 20 tackles for loss, this is a guy that plays really fluid in coverage. He knows his responsibilities at all times, and did a really good job in zone coverage on running backs and even slot receivers.
Second, what I notice about Dawson is the fact that, no matter where the play was going, he seemed to know beforehand. There were not many plays for the TCU defense that Dawson was not involved in some way, shape, or form.
**PS — did you know that Dawson was a high school wide receiver?
Here’s some tidbits from Lance Zierlein’s report on NFL.com (highly recommended resource).
“He’s an early round player without any question, but you don’t have to dig around very deep or very long to realize that his personal character is going to be a major issue for some teams. My grade will be two rounds later than just the talent grade. It has to be factored in.” — AFC West regional scout
“I’ll make sure he stays alive in our building because he’s that good.” — NFC national scout
Here’s what it says in my Pro Football Weekly NFL Draft magazine (also highly recommended) from a college scout:
“(Paul Dawson)’s the most instinctive, productive inside linebacker in this class.”
Some scouts are concerned about ‘character issues’ with Dawson. What exactly those are is not exactly known, but Zierlein’s report notes that he might not be beloved in the locker room. I don’t know exactly what that means, but I don’t believe there’s a pattern of poor behavior off the field from Dawson, so maybe he is just overly stand-offish. Who knows?
I had to get the opinion of my fellow staffers at NFL Mocks to dish out a five-course Hot Take meal on Dawson.
Jonah Tuls: “He has great tape. Intangibles aren’t the best and his test numbers aren’t good. Give me 2nd round. Best instincts of any linebacker in the draft.”
Joe Wedra: “Can be 4-3 OLB. He’s so instinctive but sometimes commits too soon and fails to wrap up. He is so athletic and instinctive, but he isn’t a bruiser that is going to go in and pound somebody. He mainly relies on athleticism and quicks; needs to be more physical and get stronger here, 2nd round.”
Charles McDonald: “Paul Dawson is a good college linebacker, but his style of play doesn’t really translate to the NFL. TCU’s 4-2-5 scheme is predicated on protecting the linebackers and allowing them to flow freely — which makes sense since the base defense only has 2 linebackers. TCU’s defensive line essentially acted as offensive linemen for Dawson and the other linebacker. While it works in college, it doesn’t prepare the linebackers to stack and shed against offensive linemen, something Dawson really really struggles with. He gets stuck on first contact which will kill him at the next level. Another thing I noticed is that Dawson’s lack of athleticism that he showed at the combine shows up on tape. He’s content with continuously flowing over he top instead of attacking alleys that would lead him right to the ball carrier — even with force players protecting the boundary for him. He doesn’t trust his own speed enough to be more aggressive when the ball is flowing away from him. In the NFL that’ll leave huge cutback lanes for running backs to exploit. Dawson’s a good college player, but what makes him a good college player in the confines of TCU’s 4-2-5 is what’ll hinder him has an NFL player.”
Nate Williams: “I watched some film on him yesterday… He played in a simple, but fast defense at TCU. Best fit for a 4-3 or could potentially play inside in a 2-gap scheme. He gets after the ball carrier, but has a tendency to be overly aggressive. Obviously, it also works to his favor from time to time as he totalled 6 turnovers (I believe?) in 2014.”
Why don’t you decide for yourself?
My own determination
Dawson is a good player (hot). Dawson is going to be a really good NFL player (hotter). If Dawson’s character checks out, he could be the best ILB in this draft (hottest).
In truth, I really did like what I saw. This guy was all over the field, not really a play for TCU’s defense that he wasn’t involved in. He’s extremely active, instinctive, and covers a lot of ground for someone with such a poor 40-time (at least at the Combine). If an NFL team can convince him of his potential, this is going to be an absolute tackle machine in the league and someone that can develop into a starter for a long, long time.
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