2015 NFL Draft: Which Position Has The Most Success At #1?

Jan 28, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Choose Chicago president Don Welsh speaks at a 2015 Draft celebratory reception at Sheraton Phoenix Downtown. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

It seems from the outside that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a difficult decision ahead of them regarding the #1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft.  It’s a selection they can’t afford to get wrong with the future of their franchise at stake.  It isn’t the popular pick they need to make but the right one.

So what does history say about #1 overall and where teams should probably go with it?  Here is a breakdown of every 1st pick in the draft dating back to 1960.  The names in italics are those who went on to at least one Pro Bowl in their career.

QUARTERBACK

• Terry Baker (1963)
• Terry Bradshaw (1970)
• Jim Plunkett (1971)
• Steve Bartkowski (1975)
• John Elway (1983)
• Vinny Testaverde (1987)
• Troy Aikman (1989)
• Jeff George (1990)
• Drew Bledsoe (1993)
• Peyton Manning (1998)
• Tim Couch (1999)
• Michael Vick (2001)
• David Carr (2002)
• Carson Palmer (2003)
• Eli Manning (2004)
• Alex Smith (2005)
• Jamarcus Russell (2007)
• Matthew Stafford (2009)
• Sam Bradford (2010)
• Cam Newton (2011)
• Andrew Luck (2012)

Hit Percentage:  14/21 (66.6%)

RUNNING BACK

• Billy Cannon (1960)
• Tommy Mason (1961)
• Ernie Davis (1962)
• Tucker Frederickson (1965)
• O.J. Simpson (1969)
• Ricky Bell (1977)
• Earl Campbell (1978)
• Billy Sims (1980)
• George Rogers (1981)
• Bo Jackson (1986)
• Ki-Jana Carter (1995)

Hit Percentage:  7/11 (63.6%)

WIDE RECEIVER

• Dave Parks (1964)
• Irving Fryar (1984)
• Keyshawn Johnson (1996)

Hit Percentage:  2/3 (66.6%)

OFFENSIVE TACKLE

• Ron Yary (1968)
• Orlando Pace (1997)
• Jake Long (2008)
• Eric Fisher (2013)

Hit Percentage 3/4 (75%)

DEFENSIVE TACKLE

• Russell Maryland (1991)
• Steve Emntman (1992)
• Dan Wilkinson (1994)

Hit Percentage 1/3 (33.3%)

DEFENSIVE END

• Walt Patulski (1972)
• John Matuszak (1973)
• Ed Jones (1974)
• Lee Roy Selmon (1976)
• Kenneth Sims (1982)
• Bruce Smith (1985)
• Courtney Brown (2000)
• Mario Williams (2006)
• Jadeveon Clowney (2014)

Hit Percentage:  4/9 (44.4%)

LINEBACKER

• Tommy Nobis (1966)
• Tom Cousineau (1979)
• Aundray Bruce (1988)

Hit Percentage:  1/3 (33.3%)

In terms of raw average the numbers clearly indicate it’s better to go offense with the top pick.  Though wide receiver and offensive tackle have as good or better averages of success, not enough have been taken at that spot to provide legitimate validation.  Meanwhile quarterbacks have owned it for 55 years and yet still maintain a hit streak of over 66%.

Granted, all of them aren’t Hall of Famers, but facts are facts.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers need a quarterback.  History shows that their chances of getting a good one are as good or better than any other position in the 2015 NFL draft.

It’s just a matter of figuring out whether it will be Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota.