Wild Card NFL Predictions: Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

One of the harder NFL predictions to make for Wild Card Weekend will be the Cincinnati Bengals visiting the Indianapolis Colts.

Subplots:

Andrew Luck may have to do it alone

It’s true that the Bengals have had their problems winning in the playoffs, but in a straight up comparison they seem to have the stronger roster than the Colts.  The key difference is quarterback Andrew Luck, who is easily better than Andy Dalton but hasn’t had much help down the stretch.  Indy has no running game worth noting and their defense is weak against the run, something the Bengals do well.  If they are going to win this game, it will be because Luck is protected and able to throw.

Key Matchups:

Adam Jones vs. T.Y. Hilton

The Colts are simply a different team when they have or don’t have T.Y. Hilton in the game.  He’s their leading receiver and a nightmare for defenses due to his speed.  However, when he can’t get it going or doesn’t play, the entire Colts offense shuts down.  That is why the Bengals have to focus their efforts on slowing him down, and the quick and experienced Adam Jones may be their best option to do that.

Jeremy Hill vs. Colts front seven

Bad things tend to happen for the Indianapolis Colts when they face strong running games.  In fact, three of their losses have come against teams with Pro Bowl running backs.  The other was against New England who rushed for over 200 yards.  So it’s not the best thing they’re about to face Jeremy Hill who has emerged as the catalyst of the Cincinnati Bengals offense with 1,124 yards and nine touchdowns, good for 5.1 yards per carry.  Stopping him isn’t going to be easy.

Pick:  CIN 21, IND 35

As much as this matchup favors the Bengals, the fact is one can’t ignore the history of their letdowns in the playoffs.  Throw in the fact that Andrew Luck is 6-2 at home this season with 2,334 yards, 20 touchdowns and just seven interceptions, this game will go the Colts way.