NFL Week 15 Picks: Will Your Team Win?

Dec 8, 2013; Landover, MD, USA; General view of Kansas City Chiefs helmet before the game against the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Oakland Raiders (2-11) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (7-6), 1:00 Sunday

Our guest for this game is Brett Gering of Arrowhead Addict.

What’s the key to avoiding another loss to Oakland?

Brett: The Chiefs own the league’s 31st-ranked run defense, so Latavius Murray is Public Enemy No. 1.

Last Sunday was the first week he received double-digit carries, so he only has 242 rushing yards to his name this season, but 90 of those stemmed from one carry versus Kansas City. And the Chiefs already proved that, relative to opposing rushers, experience is a non-factor.

Prior to Week 14, Arizona’s Kerwynn Williams hadn’t received a single handoff throughout his two-year NFL career. He received 19 against Kansas City and looked like the second coming of Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson.

Considering Derek Carr connected on all 14 passes to Mychal Rivera and Marcel Reece last week, stacking the box versus Oakland is a risky proposition, but the Chiefs might have to roll the dice.

Is Alex Smith good enough to lead a deep playoff run?

Brett: With the right supporting cast? Yes. With the current one? No.

It has less to do with Smith and more to do with who’s protecting him. When defenses deploy blitzes and/or stunts, it looks like the Hulk running through a football banner.

Outside of center Rodney Hudson, Smith’s offensive line is erratic at best. The tackles are inconsistent, and the starting guards are respectively ranked No. 127 and 136 (of 136 total) on Pro Football Focus.

A lot of critics harp on Smith’s unwillingness to throw downfield, and that’s certainly never been (and never will be) his calling card. However, unlike last season, when the passing game opened up down the stretch, Andy Reid has been forced to scheme around the front five’s deficiencies (i.e. short dropbacks) this year.

Current issues aside, people tend to forget that Smith was two Kyle Williams fumbles away from the Super Bowl just three years ago. He also authored the highest single-game passer rating of the 2013 playoffs.

Final score prediction, and why?

Brett: 24 – 16 Chiefs.

The Raiders followed their first win with a 52-0 loss to an undrafted quarterback who, out of high school, was recruited as a punter. Shoutout to Shaun Hill, but at the end of the day, he’s Shaun Hill.

Oakland has posted single-digit point totals three times this season, and all three have been on the road. Carr, meanwhile, has a 12-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home; that dips to 5-to-5 in away games.

The Raiders won’t come out nearly as flat-footed as they did versus the Rams, but the Chiefs know their playoff hopes hang in the balance. Despite a shoddy offensive line, Jamaal Charles, who’s battling knee soreness but expected to play, should spur the Chiefs to their second divisional win on Sunday.