Fantasy Impact: Patriots WR Brandon Lloyd

Sunday, October 10, 2010….I was laying on a bed in Las Vegas recovering from a night of too much beer and just enough buffet.  The Denver Broncos were playing the Baltimore Ravens, and Brandon Lloyd was going off.  Only 5 catches in the game, but 135 yards and 2 long TD’s….and a fantasy win for me that week (I had Kyle Orton too.)

Why is it relevant?  Because I think he can do that again, on a regular basis, this season.

2010 was far and away Lloyd’s bellweather season.  77 catches, 1,448 yards, 11 TD’s.  It’s his only season of over 60 catches, and the only time he topped 800 yards or 10 TD’s, but it showed what he’s capable of.

And it was Kyle Freaking Orton throwing the ball (you might have to check Wikipedia, I’m pretty sure that’s his middle name.)

The knocks on Lloyd are well known: not durable enough, not committed enough to his craft to do the things in the offseason to prepare you for the rigors of a long season.  But he’s a New England Patriot now, and he has a 3 in front of his age.  The clock is ticking, and he has a shot at a ring for the first time in his career.

Randy Moss was the same age when he arrived in New England in 2007 with similar questions.  Many thought his career was over, and we all know what happened that year.  I’m not saying Lloyd is going to post the record-setting numbers Moss did in ’07, but a case can be made that this Patriot offense has better weapons.  Namely, tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez and the matchup nightmares they create.  The primary Tight End in 2007? Yeah…. Kyle Brady.

Lloyd is going to get opportunities to make plays down the field against one-on-one coverage, but his fantasy impact could be even greater than that.  As teams committed more resources to trying to stop the Pats two-headed TE monster last year, there weren’t any deep threats to take the pressure off.  What’s a defense to do?  Roll up on Gronk and Hernandez and Lloyd can beat you deep.  Commit a Safety to double Lloyd, and those two guys will continue to eat you alive.

I can envision a Lloyd putting up something like a 60 catch, 1,000 yard, 8 touchdown year or better, and in doing so will help ensure that Gronkowski is an elite fantasy play, with Hernandez not too far behind him.  A healthy Lloyd will also provide a safety net for Wes Welker owners, as he’ll get a chance to notch his 5th 100 catch campaign.

All of this hinges, of course, on Lloyd’s desire to commit, and his ability to stay on the field.  If anyone can coax the most out of him, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are safe bets.