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Where Will All The QB’s Go?

By Dan Viens

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Last month I wrote a piece about the bounty of potential franchise quarterbacks we could see in next year’s draft.

To recap, here are the guys who have at one time or another been projected or mocked as first round picks:

  • Matt Barkley, USC
  • Tyler Wilson, Arkansas
  • Landry Jones, Oklahoma
  • Geno Smith, West Virginia
  • Tyler Bray, Tennessee
  • Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
  • Aaron Murray, Georgia

That’s seven potential first round QB’s, not to mention a number of other guys who could join this list with strong seasons.  But now that the dust has settled on this year’s talent dispersal, it’s clear that there simply won’t be enough QB-starved teams to provide first-round landing spots for all of them. Eight quarterbacks have been selected in the last two drafts.  Starting jobs are harder to come by.

Let’s take a quick inventory:

First, in no particular order, the guys who are either elite, or who’s status as long-term starter is hard to question:

  • New England, Tom Brady
  • Baltimore, Joe Flacco
  • Cincinnati, Andy Dalton
  • Pittsburgh, Ben Roethlisberger
  • Houston, Matt Schaub
  • Denver, Peyton Manning
  • San Diego, Phillip Rivers
  • Dallas, Tony Romo
  • NY Giants, Eli Manning
  • Philadelphia, Michael Vick
  • Chicago, Jay Cutler
  • Detroit, Matt Stafford
  • Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers
  • Atlanta, Matt Ryan
  • Carolina, Cam Newton
  • New Orleans, Drew Brees
  • St. Louis, Sam Bradford

Next up, the spots that are spoken for by players that are heavily committed to, either with a big contract or a recent high draft position:

  • Buffalo, Ryan Fitzpatrick
  • Miami, Ryan Tannehill
  • NY Jets, Mark Sanchez/Tim Tebow
  • Cleveland, Brandon Weeden
  • Indinanapolis, Andrew Luck
  • Jacksonville, Blaine Gabbert
  • Tennessee, Matt Hasselbeck/Jake Locker
  • Kansas City, Matt Cassell
  • Oakland, Carson Palmer
  • Washington, Robert Griffin III
  • Minnesota, Christian Ponder
  • Tampa Bay, Josh Freeman
  • Arizona, Kevin Kolb
  • San Francisco, Alex Smith/Colin Kaepernick
  • Seattle, Matt Flynn/Russell Wilson

You can make a case that each and every team will be set at QB entering the 2013 draft.  But we all know that won’t be the case, right?  So who’s the most vulnerable?  Here’s how I rank the signal-callers on the hottest seats:

  1. Blaine Gabbert — The reports of his queasiness in the pocket were well founded.  The Jags have pledged their public support, and Justin Blackmon will help, but unless there’s a dramatic turnaround by Gabbert and the Jags, a #1 draft slot and new management awaits.  If that happens, a fresh QB will certainly be at the top of their shopping list.
  2. Matt Cassell — He’s been good, great, bad, and awful during his three years in K.C. He turns 30 in a couple of weeks, and the Chiefs have a young, talented roster.  If Cassell is anything less than stellar this year, a good bet, the Chiefs will be in the QB market.  Brady Quinn and Ricky Stanzi are certainly not the answer.
  3. Kevin Kolb/John Skelton — Either of these guys could be a serviceable starter on an elite team, which the Cardinals definitely are not.  My money is on a total housecleaning in Arizona this winter.
  4. Carson Palmer — He’s 32, and he’s lost his fastball.  The Raiders could find themselves looking up at the rest of an improved AFC West.
  5. Christian Ponder — He was unspectacular but solid as a rookie starter, but the jury is still out.  This is another situation where the coaching staff could be on thin ice.  I like Ponder’s chances to take a step forward, however.
  6. Alex Smith/Colin Kaepernick — Say what you want about Smith, he was outstanding last year in leading the 49ers to a 13-3 record, and Harbaugh is apparently smitten with Kaepernick.  Hell, their third stringer is Josh Johnson, who showed promise in Tampa Bay and played for Harbaugh at San Diego State.  I don’t see the 49ers going QB early in 2013.
  7. Ryan Fitzpatrick — Some felt that Ryan Tannehill fit the Chan Gailey QB mold to a T, so the fact they chose not to trade up to get him this year may be a clue as to how they feel about Fitz.  He signed a big contract last year, but it’s one that the team can walk away from without a huge cap hit.  Fitz is by no means set in stone long term, but the Bills could be a playoff contender this season.  I don’t see the team looking to invest heavily in a younger QB any time soon.

As you can see, it’s tough to pinpoint any QB situations that are unsettled enough to call it a slam-dunk that they’ll be looking for a first round upgrade next year.  Let’s assume the first four on the list falter, that still leaves

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