Top Ten Potential Busts

You know all the names; Jemarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, Tony Mandarich, Tim Couch…..  Players who had great expectations yet suffered great failure.  It happens in every draft.  It will happen in this one.

Everyone is focusing on upside today, every pick is golden, at least in the team’s eyes.  But from the outside….there are questions, lots of them.

For the sake of clarification, let’s define the term “bust.” And our poster child will be….. Aaron Curry.  Drafted 4th overall by the Seahawks in 2009, Curry never found a consistent role in Seattle, never lived up to expectations, and was sent to Oakland last year for a couple of late-round draft picks.  So that will be the benchmark I use.  These players may end up still having 10 year careers in the league, but may not be with the teams that drafted them three years from now. 

Think David Carr.

So with that, here are my Top Ten Potential Busts of this year’s first round:

1. Quinton Coples, DE: Picked by the NY Jet at #16. You know the main reason; his motor is in question.  But there’s more to this.  This is another in a growing list of risky personnel moves by the Ryan/Tannenbaum duo (see Tebow, Tim). If Coples quits on Ryan the way he quit on his Tar Heel teammates his senior year, he may not be around when Ryan’s replacement blows into town.
2. Dontari Poe, DT: #11 by Kansas City. He had a stellar combine but his college tape is unimpressive and shows a lack of production. Where are you Mike Mamula?
3. Ryan Tannehill, QB: #8 by Miami. Let me make this clear…. again.  I like Ryan Tannehill, a LOT.  I think he has a unique combination of intangibles and skill set.  He has all the things you look for in a potential franchise quarterback.  But signal-callers carry the highest bust potential, and the situation in Miami may not be the healthiest.  If the Dolphins don’t surround him with the weapons he needs, and he’s rushed or mis-managed, he could fail just as so many other talented QB’s have before him.  My money is on him becoming a Top 15 QB in a few years, but for now…. until we know more about the new coaching staff, he belongs on the list.
4. Michael Brockers, DT: #14 by St. Louis. The first draft choice ever by new Rams G.M. Les Snead may be one he ultimately regrets.  I don’t like Brockers.  He’s big, and he’s young, and Jeff Fisher has shown a knack for getting the most out of defensive players (Albert Haynsworth) but all I see from Brockers on tape is a big body who can clog up the middle.  He doesn’t make a lot of plays.  Maybe that will be his value on this team, clearing the way for Chris Long and Robert Quinn to get to the quarterback, but he’s not going to be a star.
5. Stephon Gilmore, CB: #10 by Buffalo.  Good player, but overrated and over-drafted.  He’ll need to be productive, quickly, to live up to that draft spot.
6. Bruce Irvin, DE: #15 by Seattle.  I gave this pick an F yesterday, because I felt like this was a kid who could be had in the second round, but then the information started to flow.  The 49ers wanted him at their pick in the first round…. at least 7 teams had him in their top 15 in the draft….. nearly every respected draft analyst called him the best pure pass-rusher in the draft…. and Pete Carroll says he’s the perfect fit for the LEO position in his system.  So he may very well be Aldon Smith, and get 15 sacks a year for the Seahawks.  But the question is, and it’s a big question…. can he be an every down player.  If he turns out to be nothing more than a specialist, he could justify his place on this list.
7. Harrison Smith, S: #29 by Minnesota. Very polarizing player.  Some analysts love him, others hate him.  The Vikings traded up to get him, so he’ll have more to live up to in the eyes of the fan base.
8. Dre Kirkpatrick, CB: #17 by Cincinnati.  Big, physical corner.  Fills an immediate need with the Bengals and should start from day one on an improving young defense.  I just don’t know if he’s quick enough breaking on the ball to make the interceptions people will expect from him.  Could be more Marcus Trufant than Champ Bailey.
9. Michael Floyd, WR: #13 by Cardinals.  Receivers have a high bust rate historically.  Floyd is an impressive athlete for his size, but there are questions about his ability to seperate and his attitude.  If he has early success (and he might, playing opposite Larry Fitzgerald) he could go all Anquan Boldin and want big dollars, and a bigger role elsewhere.
10. Kendall Wright, WR: #20 by Tennessee. Receivers have a high bust rate historically (did I mention that already?) Wright is a bit of an enigma.  Looks lightning quick on tape but ran a 4.6 40 at the combine.  Comes from a system that makes it easy for a WR to break free.  He’s undersized, and he has 16% body fat.  That just seems crazy for a potentiall elite receiving talent.  Can he seperate at the line of scrimmage?  Can he maintain himself physically?  How will he make the transition from spread offense to the pro game?  There are other receivers I would have taken before Wright.